This thesis examines the association between selected macroeconomic factors and changes in residential property prices in the cadastral municipalities of Koper and Semedela. The analysis is based on transaction data from Trgoskop and data from SURS, GURS and the ECB for the period 2007–2025. Pearson correlation analysis and simple and multiple linear regression models were used to examine associations with real GDP growth, the relative change in the survey unemployment rate, the six-month EURIBOR, real growth in average net wages and inflation. A dummy variable for the COVID-19 period was included in the regression models, and different time lags were examined. The results indicate a positive association of residential property price growth with economic growth and inflation and a negative association with rising unemployment. The strongest negative association with EURIBOR was observed after a multi-year lag. The association with real net wage growth was not stable and was statistically significant only at a lag of four quarters. Based on the multiple regression analysis, a forecasting model was developed that predicts continued price growth in the period 2026– 2028, although at a gradually decreasing rate.
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