20.500.12556/RUL-187500 Napoved gibanja cen stanovanjskih nepremičnin na območju Kopra diplomska naloga Forecasting residential property price movements in the Koper area graduation thesis V diplomskem delu smo preučili povezanost med izbranimi makroekonomskimi dejavniki in spremembami cen stanovanjskih nepremičnin na območju katastrskih občin Koper in Semedela. Analiza je temeljila na transakcijskih podatkih Trgoskopa ter podatkih SURS, GURS in ECB za obdobje 2007–2025. Z uporabo Pearsonove korelacijske analize ter enostavnih in multiplih linearnih regresijskih modelov smo preverili povezave z realno rastjo BDP, relativno spremembo anketne stopnje brezposelnosti, šestmesečnim EURIBOR-jem, realno rastjo povprečne neto plače in inflacijo. V regresijske modele smo vključili tudi slamnato spremenljivko za obdobje COVID-19 in preverili različne časovne zamike. Rezultati so pokazali pozitivno povezanost rasti cen z gospodarsko rastjo in inflacijo ter negativno povezanost z rastjo brezposelnosti. Pri EURIBOR-ju se je najizrazitejša negativna povezava pokazala z večletnim zamikom. Pri realni rasti neto plače povezava ni bila stabilna in je bila statistično značilna samo pri zamiku štirih četrtletij. Na podlagi multiple regresijske analize smo oblikovali napovedni model, ki za obdobje 2026–2028 kaže nadaljnjo rast cen, vendar njeno postopno umirjanje. This thesis examines the association between selected macroeconomic factors and changes in residential property prices in the cadastral municipalities of Koper and Semedela. The analysis is based on transaction data from Trgoskop and data from SURS, GURS and the ECB for the period 2007–2025. Pearson correlation analysis and simple and multiple linear regression models were used to examine associations with real GDP growth, the relative change in the survey unemployment rate, the six-month EURIBOR, real growth in average net wages and inflation. A dummy variable for the COVID-19 period was included in the regression models, and different time lags were examined. The results indicate a positive association of residential property price growth with economic growth and inflation and a negative association with rising unemployment. The strongest negative association with EURIBOR was observed after a multi-year lag. The association with real net wage growth was not stable and was statistically significant only at a lag of four quarters. Based on the multiple regression analysis, a forecasting model was developed that predicts continued price growth in the period 2026– 2028, although at a gradually decreasing rate. diplomske naloge stanovanjske nepremičnine cene stanovanj makroekonomski dejavniki regresijska analiza napovedovanje Koper graduation thesis residential property housing prices macroeconomic factors regression analysis regression analysis forecasting Koper true false false [N. Prunk] Slovenski jezik Angleški jezik Diplomsko delo/naloga 2026-09-11 08:45:39 2026-09-11 08:45:44 2026-09-16 16:33:00 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2026 0 Ljubljana 2026 Ljubljana 1 spletni vir (1 datoteka PDF (IX, 47 str., 3 pril.)) 0000-00-00 NiDoloceno NiDoloceno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 332.74(497.472)(043.2) 181970 291327747 22925.pdf 22925.pdf 1 36B038524AB823B992B430E5CCE8D72D 2c666012e89585470367966435f62ecca8a57bb3500e8dca18b773c2bb0d1686 62aa859a-adac-11f1-8bc5-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=247142 Fakulteta za gradbeništvo in geodezijo 0 0 0