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Evidence of a climate-change-induced shift in European beech distribution : an unequal response in the elevation, temperature and precipitation gradients
ID Klopčič, Matija (Avtor), ID Rozman, Andrej (Avtor), ID Bončina, Andrej (Avtor)

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Izvleček
Climate is a strong predictor of the geographic distribution of tree species, and thus climate change may trigger shifts in the distribution of a tree species and/or its demographic structure. In the study, we aim to comprehensively compare the distributions of four life stages of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) (i.e., regeneration, recruitment, young trees and mature trees) in forests in Slovenia, Central Europe, which are characterized by strong gradients of elevation (ELV), temperature (TEMP) and precipitation (PREC) to detect possible shifts in distribution and demography. Beech life stages were surveyed on 3366 plots. To depict disparities between ELV, TEMP and PREC distributions of beech life stages, we applied several non-parametric methods: basic statistical tests to study differences in medians, means, and 1st and 9th deciles; generalized additive models to study shifts in the optimum; and extreme value analysis to study shifts at the trailing and leading edges. A substantial shift in juvenile beech stages upward and toward colder sites was detected. However, the shift was not uniform along the distributions; the most significant shift was detected at the leading edge of ELV (+73 m) and TEMP (−2.6 °C), but surprisingly there was no beech movement identified at the trailing edge. The observed shift may be a result of the interplay between climate change, high spatial variability in microclimate, unexceptional droughts in the recent past, changes in forest use and possible limitations in the migration ability of beech and its adaptation capacity.

Jezik:Angleški jezik
Ključne besede:Fagus sylvatica, successional life stages, regeneration, recruitment, mature trees, generalized additive model, extreme value analysis
Vrsta gradiva:Članek v reviji
Tipologija:1.01 - Izvirni znanstveni članek
Organizacija:BF - Biotehniška fakulteta
Status publikacije:Objavljeno
Različica publikacije:Objavljena publikacija
Leto izida:2022
Št. strani:16 str.
Številčenje:Vol. 13, iss. 8, art. 1311
PID:20.500.12556/RUL-138852 Povezava se odpre v novem oknu
UDK:630*2
ISSN pri članku:1999-4907
DOI:10.3390/f13081311 Povezava se odpre v novem oknu
COBISS.SI-ID:118899715 Povezava se odpre v novem oknu
Datum objave v RUL:23.08.2022
Število ogledov:260
Število prenosov:82
Metapodatki:XML RDF-CHPDL DC-XML DC-RDF
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Gradivo je del revije

Naslov:Forests
Skrajšan naslov:Forests
Založnik:MDPI
ISSN:1999-4907
COBISS.SI-ID:3872166 Povezava se odpre v novem oknu

Licence

Licenca:CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Priznanje avtorstva 4.0 Mednarodna
Povezava:http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.sl
Opis:To je standardna licenca Creative Commons, ki daje uporabnikom največ možnosti za nadaljnjo uporabo dela, pri čemer morajo navesti avtorja.

Sekundarni jezik

Jezik:Slovenski jezik
Ključne besede:bukev, Fagus sylvatica, življenjske faze, mladje, vrast, odraslo drevje, posplošeni aditivni modeli, analiza ekstremnih vrednosti

Projekti

Financer:ARRS - Agencija za raziskovalno dejavnost Republike Slovenije
Številka projekta:J4-1765
Naslov:Razvoj gozdnih ekosistemov in klimatske spremembe: učinki ujm večjega obsega in segrevanja ozračja

Financer:ARRS - Agencija za raziskovalno dejavnost Republike Slovenije
Številka projekta:P4-0059
Naslov:Gozd, gozdarstvo in obnovljivi gozdni viri

Financer:ARRS - Agencija za raziskovalno dejavnost Republike Slovenije
Številka projekta:I0-0022
Naslov:Mreža raziskovalnih infrastrukturnih centrov Univerze v Ljubljani (MRIC UL)

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