Evidence of a climate-change-induced shift in European beech distribution : an unequal response in the elevation, temperature and precipitation gradients

Klopčič, Matija (author), Rozman, Andrej (author), Bončina, Andrej (author)

Climate is a strong predictor of the geographic distribution of tree species, and thus climate change may trigger shifts in the distribution of a tree species and/or its demographic structure. In the study, we aim to comprehensively compare the distributions of four life stages of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) (i.e., regeneration, recruitment, young trees and mature trees) in forests in Slovenia, Central Europe, which are characterized by strong gradients of elevation (ELV), temperature (TEMP) and precipitation (PREC) to detect possible shifts in distribution and demography. Beech life stages were surveyed on 3366 plots. To depict disparities between ELV, TEMP and PREC distributions of beech life stages, we applied several non-parametric methods: basic statistical tests to study differences in medians, means, and 1st and 9th deciles; generalized additive models to study shifts in the optimum; and extreme value analysis to study shifts at the trailing and leading edges. A substantial shift in juvenile beech stages upward and toward colder sites was detected. However, the shift was not uniform along the distributions; the most significant shift was detected at the leading edge of ELV (+73 m) and TEMP (−2.6 °C), but surprisingly there was no beech movement identified at the trailing edge. The observed shift may be a result of the interplay between climate change, high spatial variability in microclimate, unexceptional droughts in the recent past, changes in forest use and possible limitations in the migration ability of beech and its adaptation capacity.

• Language: English
• Keywords: Fagus sylvatica, successional life stages, regeneration, recruitment, mature trees, generalized additive model, extreme value analysis
• Work type: Article
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: BF - Biotechnical Faculty
• Publication status: Published
• Publication version: Version of Record
• Year: 2022
• Number of pages: 16 str.
• Numbering: Vol. 13, iss. 8, art. 1311
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-138852
• UDC: 630*2
• ISSN on article: 1999-4907
• DOI: 10.3390/f13081311
• COBISS.SI-ID: 118899715
• Publication date in RUL: 23.08.2022

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: Forests
• Shortened title: Forests
• Publisher: MDPI
• ISSN: 1999-4907
• COBISS.SI-ID: 3872166

Licences

• License: CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
• Link: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Description: This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: bukev, Fagus sylvatica, življenjske faze, mladje, vrast, odraslo drevje, posplošeni aditivni modeli, analiza ekstremnih vrednosti