This master’s thesis examines the long-term development of Slovenia’s electric power system through 2050. Given the anticipated decommissioning of the coal-fired thermal power plant TEŠ 6, the expiration of the nuclear power plant NEK’s lifetime, and the expected growth in final electricity consumption due to the electrification of transportation, heating, and other sectors, the key issue is the future direction of Slovenia’s electricity sector. The purpose of the thesis was to objectively evaluate various scenarios for the development of production capacity and to identify their economic, environmental, self-sufficiency, and systemic impacts.
A mathematical model of economic dispatch was developed for the purposes of this analysis. The model simulates, on an hourly time scale, the operation of generation units, the meeting of demand, cross-border transmission capacities, and excess or shortfall of electricity generation. The analysis utilized technical, operational, and economic data from generation units, as well as annual hourly profiles of non-dispatchable technologies, including solar and wind power plants, small hydropower plants, and biogas and biomass power plants. Battery energy storage systems, electricity consumption for hydrogen production, time profiles of cross-border transmission capacities, market prices for electricity, hydrological data, and projections of final electricity consumption were also taken into account.
Based on the Slovenian National Energy and Climate Plan and our own projections of technological development, the following development scenarios were created: a scenario of existing measures, an adjusted scenario of additional measures involving nuclear energy, an adjusted scenario of additional measures involving renewable energy sources, a lower-flexibility scenario with small modular reactors and a high-flexibility scenario without JEK2. The scenarios were evaluated using economic, environmental, self-sufficiency, and system indicators.
The results show that the existing measures scenario, which does not envisage any significant new generation capacity, yields the worst results and entails high import dependence. The highest overall rating was achieved by the adjusted scenario of additional measures involving nuclear energy, which is based on new nuclear capacity supported by renewable energy sources, hydroelectric power plants, battery storage, and other low-carbon technologies. Nuclear scenarios achieve the best results in terms of system indicators and self-sufficiency but are associated with higher costs. Scenarios with a higher share of solar power plants and battery storage systems are more economically favourable and achieve good environmental results but generally have poorer system indicators. At the same time, the results confirm that, with sufficient installed capacity, renewable energy sources and storage systems can make a significant contribution to meeting domestic electricity demand.
The methodology developed enables rapid testing of new assumptions, the preparation of additional scenarios, and the conduct of sensitivity analyses. It provides a technical foundation for further research and supports decision-making regarding the future development of Slovenia’s electric power sector.
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