The forecast of value of lost load in Slovenia

Bogovič, Jerneja (avtor)

In modern society, we are increasingly dependent on electricity, which makes interruptions in supply affect us even more and also causes both direct and indirect costs. Various indexes are available to evaluate the costs associated with interruptions in supply. Recently, the Value of Lost Load (VOLL) has been the most commonly used index to evaluate costs. Moreover, a determination of this index is mandatory in the EU and ENTSO-E countries, as a measure of the Reliability Standard. Since the determination of the VOLL based on surveys is time-consuming and estimates based on macroeconomic indicators do not provide realistic values, a regression method with the gross domestic product (GDP) as the impact factor is used to forecast the value of the VOLL for Slovenia until the year 2030. The estimated value of the VOLL for Slovenia in 2022 is 10.0€/kWh, which is in line with the value of 10.6€/kWh used to measure the Reliability Standard in Slovenian electric power system. Furthermore, the obtained results are compared with the results for Italy, which has carried out a survey-based analysis in 2021 and has a GDP in 2021 slightly higher than projected for Slovenia in 2030. Based on the regression method, the value of the VOLL for Slovenia for 2030 is estimated at 26.0€/kWh, while the value of the VOLL for Italy in 2021 based on survey is 28.4€/kWh. The results show that the application of the regression method to predict the value of the VOLL using the GDP as impact parameter is reasonable and appropriate.

• Jezik: Angleški jezik
• Ključne besede: gross domestic produst, GDP, regression, reliability standard, Slovenian power system, value of lost load, VOLL
• Vrsta gradiva: Članek v reviji
• Tipologija: 1.01 - Izvirni znanstveni članek
• Organizacija: FE - Fakulteta za elektrotehniko
• Status publikacije: Objavljeno
• Različica publikacije: Objavljena publikacija
• Leto izida: 2022
• Št. strani: Str. 13-18
• Številčenje: Vol. 7, issue 1
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-184998
• UDK: 621.31
• ISSN pri članku: 2458-8156
• COBISS.SI-ID: 285422595

Avtorske pravice

Podatek o licenci naveden na pristajalni strani članka.

• Datum objave v RUL: 20.07.2026

Gradivo je del revije

• Naslov: European journal of engineering and natural sciences
• Založnik: CNR Publishing
• ISSN: 2458-8156
• COBISS.SI-ID: 285382147

Licence

• Licenca: CC BY-NC 4.0, Creative Commons Priznanje avtorstva-Nekomercialno 4.0 Mednarodna
• Povezava: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/deed.sl
• Opis: Licenca Creative Commons, ki prepoveduje komercialno uporabo, vendar uporabniki ne rabijo upravljati materialnih avtorskih pravic na izpeljanih delih z enako licenco.

Sekundarni jezik

• Jezik: Slovenski jezik
• Ključne besede: bruto domači proizvod, BDP, regresijska metoda, standard zanesljivosti, slovenski elektroenergetski sistem, vrednost nedobavljene energije, VOLL

Projekti

• Financer: ARIS - Javna agencija za znanstvenoraziskovalno in inovacijsko dejavnost Republike Slovenije
• Številka projekta: P2-0356
• Naslov: Elektroenergetski sistemi