Introduction
Coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) provides accurate non-invasive assessment of the presence, extent, and composition of atherosclerotic plaques. Atherosclerosis is a complex process involving metabolic, inflammatory, and hemostatic factors. Recent research has increasingly focused on emerging lipid, inflammation, and hemostatic biomarkers that may identify individuals at higher risk for disease progression. The aim of our doctoral thesis was to evaluate the associations between novel lipid (HDL2, HDL3, sdLDL), inflammation (hsCRP, TAS), and hemostatic biomarkers (OHP, OCP, OFP) with the presence, extent, and composition of atherosclerotic plaques assessed by CCTA, and to determine their prognostic impact on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE).
Methods
In a prospective cohort study, we included 181 consecutive patients with low-to-intermediate pre-test probability for coronary artery disease (mean age 61 years, 50 % women). We perforedm CCTA (using a 128-slice dual-energy scanner) and determined levels of HDL2, HDL3, sdLDL, hsCRP, TAS, OHP, OCP, and OFP. We assessed coronary calcium score (CACS), segment involvement score (SIS), segment stenosis score (SSS), and plaque composition (lipid-rich, fibrocalcific, and calcified components). Patients were followed for a minimum of two years for MACE, including cardiac death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and unplanned revascularization. Results were validated in a larger independent retrospective cohort of 750 patients (mean age 61 years, 54 % women).
Results
CACS was possible in 175 patients, CCTA in 156, and plaque analysis in 593 vessel segments, with plaques present in 116 segments.
HDL3 was consistently and significantly inversely associated with CACS (ρ = −0.35, p < 0.001), SIS (ρ = −0.360, p < 0.001), and SSS (ρ = −0.362, p < 0.001), as well as with the proportion and volume of calcified, fibrocalcific, and lipid-rich plaques (ρ = −0.20 to −0.22, p < 0.001). In regression models, HDL3 was the strongest protective predictor of CACS (β = −11.6; p < 0.001) and of atherosclerosis extent and severity (SIS: IRR = 0.647; SSS: IRR = 0.579; p < 0.001), which was confirmed by zero inflated negative binomial regression models (CACS IRR = 0.65; 95% CI 0.44–0.96; p = 0.028). These associations remained statistically significant after adjustment for age and sex, and for SCORE2 (CACS β = −0.58, p = 0.001; SIS β = −0.250; SSS β = −0.340; p < 0.001).
HDL2 demonstrated weaker inverse associations with CACS (ρ = −0.18, p = 0.015), SIS (ρ = −0.137, p = 0.087), and SSS (ρ = −0.129, p = 0.109) and less consistent associations with plaque burden. In regression models, HDL2 showed a modest protective effect, significant only for atherosclerosis extent and severity (SIS IRR = 0.780, p = 0.043; SSS IRR = 0.725, p = 0.030), whereas associations with CACS were no longer significant after adjustment. TAS was positively associated with CACS (ρ = 0.35, p < 0.001), SSS (ρ = 0.323, p < 0.001), SIS (ρ = 0.335, p < 0.001), and all plaque types (ρ = 0.17–0.19, p < 0.001). In regression models, TAS was positively associated with CACS and SSS, but statistical significance was lost after adjustment. Other biomarkers (sdLDL, hsCRP, OHP, OCP, OFP) were not significantly associated with CACS, SIS, SSS, or plaque composition.
During a median follow-up of 1794 days in the prospective cohort, 12 MACE occurred (6.6%). The strongest predictor of events was atherosclerosis extent (SIS: HR = 1.87; 95% CI 1.30–2.67; p < 0.001, SSS: HR = 1.56; 95% CI 1.07–2.27; p = 0.021). Among biomarkers, only sdLDL was associated with the risk of MACE (HR 1.38; 95% CI 1.01–1.89; p = 0.043). In the retrospective validation cohort, CCTA-derived measures of atherosclerosis extent and severity (SIS, SSS, obstructive disease) were strong and accurate independent predictors of MACE, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.77.
Conclusion
HDL3 is consistently and robustly inversely associated with coronary calcium, atherosclerosis extent, and plaque composition, confirming its protective role in atherosclerosis. HDL2 demonstrated weaker protective effects, whereas other markers of inflammation and hemostasisy were not associated with early stage atherosclerosis. Atherosclerosis extent (as assessed by SIS and SSS) is the strongest independent predictor of MACE. Our findings underscore the role of quantitative CCTA and highlight HDL3 as a key atheroprotective biomarker, with potential for improved cardiovascular risk assessment.
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