Political polarization and compromise in secession politics : theory note

Ramsay, Kristopher W. (avtor), Prezelj, Iztok (avtor)

Why do some secession movements lead to violent conflict, others are resolved through policy concessions, while still others end in peaceful separation? Existing theories focused on information asymmetries or commitment prob- lems cannot fully explain this variation in outcomes. We propose a bargaining theory of secession incorporat- ing three critical factors: policy polarization, credible exit, and resource rents. We demonstrate that secessions dif- fer from standard bargaining problems because successful separation creates two independent policy-setting enti- ties. Our analysis reveals that, even with complete information, policy differ ences alone can trigger conflict when polarization exceeds critical thresholds. Equally important, we identify conditions where peaceful partition becomes rational. The usefulness of this framework is demonstrated through comparative analysis of cases, including Su- dan, Czechoslovakia, and Panama. By explaining compromise, peaceful separation, and violent secession within a unified model, this research advances our theoretical understanding of when political unions endure or dissolve.

• Jezik: Angleški jezik
• Ključne besede: bargaining, polarization, contest
• Vrsta gradiva: Članek v reviji
• Tipologija: 1.01 - Izvirni znanstveni članek
• Organizacija: FDV - Fakulteta za družbene vede
• Status publikacije: Objavljeno
• Različica publikacije: Objavljena publikacija
• Datum objave: 01.07.2026
• Leto izida: 2026
• Št. strani: Str. 1-10
• Številčenje: Vol. 70, iss. 3
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-184238
• UDK: 32:329.273
• ISSN pri članku: 0020-8833
• DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqag025
• COBISS.SI-ID: 283380483
• Datum objave v RUL: 02.07.2026

Gradivo je del revije

• Naslov: International studies quarterly
• Založnik: Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press
• ISSN: 0020-8833
• COBISS.SI-ID: 25667328

Licence

• Licenca: CC BY-NC 4.0, Creative Commons Priznanje avtorstva-Nekomercialno 4.0 Mednarodna
• Povezava: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/deed.sl
• Opis: Licenca Creative Commons, ki prepoveduje komercialno uporabo, vendar uporabniki ne rabijo upravljati materialnih avtorskih pravic na izpeljanih delih z enako licenco.

Projekti

• Financer: ARIS
• Številka projekta: BI-US/18–19-047
• Naslov: Secession Games: Application of Game Theory on Secession Situations in Contemporary States