This master's thesis examines the impact of land use change on flood hazard in the Vipava River basin. The aim of the research was to use hydrological modelling to determine how different future land use scenarios affect surface runoff and flood risk. A hydrological model was developed in HEC-HMS and calibrated using four observed high-water events, based on measured precipitation and discharge data. Three land use change scenarios were created using the MOLUSCE plugin and artificial neural network methods, based on varying assumptions about urban development and other land use changes in the municipality of Ajdovščina. The results indicate that increasing built up surfaces raises surface runoff volumes, therefore increasing flood hazard, particularly in the lower part of the valley. The thesis emphasizes the importance of accounting for spatial change in flood risk management and presents an established methodological framework applicable to other river basins in Slovenia. Key findings highlight the need for detailed spatial analysis and the integration of land use change models into spatial planning and water management processes.
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