Predictive models for active suicidal ideation in cognitive decline : identifying risk factors

Vidovič, Eva (avtor), Finžgar, Jernej Rudi (avtor), Kokalj Palandačić, Anja (avtor), Rus Prelog, Polona (avtor)

Background: Suicide rates among older adults with cognitive decline represent a critical public health concern. Despite the association between cognitive decline and suicidality, predictive models for active suicidal ideation (ASI) in this population remain underexplored. Methods: A retrospective study of 1,889 patients with cognitive decline was conducted using electronic health records. Sociodemographic, cognitive, clinical, psychiatric, and functional variables were analyzed. Univariate logistic regression identified correlates of ASI, followed by multivariate predictive modeling using Logistic Regression (LR) and XGBoost. Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) identified key predictors, and SHAP values provided model interpretability. Results: Depressive symptoms, Mini-Mental-State-Exam score, duration of cognitive decline, past suicide attempts, antidementia medication use, and living arrangement emerged as key predictors. Both LR and XGBoost demonstrated robust performance (ROC AUC: 0.81–0.70; PR AUC: 0.55). Conclusion: Multivariate predictive models provide improved risk stratification for ASI, highlighting the need for targeted interventions among individuals with cognitive decline.

• Jezik: Angleški jezik
• Ključne besede: active suicidal ideation, cognitive decline, older adults, predictive modeling
• Vrsta gradiva: Članek v reviji
• Tipologija: 1.01 - Izvirni znanstveni članek
• Organizacija: MF - Medicinska fakulteta
• Status publikacije: Objavljeno
• Različica publikacije: Objavljena publikacija
• Leto izida: 2026
• Št. strani: 10 str.
• Številčenje: Vol. 26, iss. 1, art. 165
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-183171
• UDK: 616.89
• ISSN pri članku: 1471-244X
• DOI: 10.1186/s12888-025-07768-2
• COBISS.SI-ID: 271779075
• Datum objave v RUL: 07.06.2026

Gradivo je del revije

• Naslov: BMC psychiatry
• Skrajšan naslov: BMC Psychiatry
• Založnik: Springer Nature
• ISSN: 1471-244X
• COBISS.SI-ID: 2446100

Licence

• Licenca: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0, Creative Commons Priznanje avtorstva-Nekomercialno-Brez predelav 4.0 Mednarodna
• Povezava: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.sl
• Opis: Najbolj omejujoča licenca Creative Commons. Uporabniki lahko prenesejo in delijo delo v nekomercialne namene in ga ne smejo uporabiti za nobene druge namene.

Sekundarni jezik

• Jezik: Slovenski jezik
• Ključne besede: aktivne samomorilne misli, kognitivni upad, starejši odrasli, napovedno modeliranje