Demographic change is one of the key long-term fiscal challenges faced by European countries. Slovenia, like other European Union member states, is experiencing population ageing, low fertility rates, and increasing life expectancy, which place growing pressure on public finances, particularly on the pension and healthcare systems. The aim of this bachelor’s thesis is to examine the impact of population ageing on public expenditure on pensions and healthcare in Slovenia over the period from 1994 to 2024 and to assess whether the influence of demographic factors has changed in the last decade.
The thesis is based on a quantitative empirical analysis using multiple linear regression conducted in SPSS. The analysis draws on data from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, Eurostat, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and the European Commission. The dependent variables are public expenditure on pensions and healthcare as a share of gross domestic product (GDP). The independent variables include the share of the population aged 65 and over, life expectancy, fertility rate, employment rate, and GDP per capita.
The results confirm a statistically significant and positive relationship between population ageing and pension and healthcare expenditure. The strongest effects are observed for the share of the elderly population and life expectancy. The analysis also indicates that the impact of demographic factors partially declined after 2010, which may be associated with pension system reforms and improved efficiency in the healthcare system. The thesis highlights the importance of timely policy reforms to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability.
|
