The missing window of opportunity and quasi-experimental effects of institutional integration : evidence from Ukraine

Focacci, Chiara Natalie (avtor), Kovač, Mitja (avtor), Spruk, Rok (avtor)

We examine the contribution of institutional integration to a country’s institutional capacity. To this end, we examine the effects of remaining outside of the European integration process for 28 Ukrainian provinces in the period 1996–2020. We construct novel, machine-learning supported subnational estimates of institutional capacity and quality for Ukraine and for central and eastern European countries that have completed institutional integration. Based on the latent residual component extraction of institutional quality from the existing governance indicators, we use Bayesian posterior analysis under non-informative objective prior function to construct institutional quality indicators from more than 1.8 million randomly sequenced samples across Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. By comparing the residualized institutional quality trajectories of Ukrainian provinces with their central and eastern European peers that were admitted to the European Union in 2004 and after, we assess the institutional quality cost of failing to institutionally integrate with the EU. Based on the large-scale synthetic control and difference-in-differences analysis, we find evidence of large-scale negative institutional quality and capacity effects of missing the European integration path such as heightened political instability and rampant deterioration of the rule of law and control of corruption. The statistical significance of the estimated effects is evaluated across a comprehensive placebo simulation with more than 34 billion placebo averages for each institutional quality outcome.

• Jezik: Angleški jezik
• Ključne besede: quasi-experimental analysis, synthetic control method, Ukraine, European Union, institutional integration
• Vrsta gradiva: Članek v reviji
• Tipologija: 1.01 - Izvirni znanstveni članek
• Organizacija: EF - Ekonomska fakulteta
• Status publikacije: Objavljeno
• Različica publikacije: Objavljena publikacija
• Leto izida: 2025
• Št. strani: Str. 561-576
• Številčenje: Vol. 21, iss. 2
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-176624
• UDK: 346
• ISSN pri članku: 2194-6000
• DOI: 10.1515/rle-2024-0056
• COBISS.SI-ID: 242288387
• Datum objave v RUL: 05.12.2025

Gradivo je del revije

• Naslov: Review of law & economics
• Založnik: De Gruyter, De Gruyter Brill, European Association of Law and Economics
• ISSN: 2194-6000
• COBISS.SI-ID: 15475537

Licence

• Licenca: CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Priznanje avtorstva 4.0 Mednarodna
• Povezava: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.sl
• Opis: To je standardna licenca Creative Commons, ki daje uporabnikom največ možnosti za nadaljnjo uporabo dela, pri čemer morajo navesti avtorja.

Sekundarni jezik

• Jezik: Slovenski jezik
• Ključne besede: Ukrajina, EU, mednarodne ekonomske integracije, analiza