Smoothing and spatial verification of global fields

Skok, Gregor (avtor), Kosovelj, Katarina (avtor)

Forecast verification plays a crucial role in the development cycle of operational numerical weather prediction models. At the same time, verification remains a challenge as the traditionally used non-spatial forecast quality metrics exhibit certain drawbacks, with new spatial metrics being developed to address these problems. Some of these new metrics are based on smoothing, with one example being the widely used Fraction Skill Score (FSS) and its many derivatives. However, while the FSS has been used by many researchers in limited area domains, there are no examples of it being used in a global domain yet. The issue is due to the increased computational complexity of smoothing in a global domain, with its inherent spherical geometry and non-equidistant and/or irregular grids. At the same time, there clearly exists a need for spatial metrics that could be used in the global domain as the operational global models continue to be developed and improved, along with the new machine-learning-based models. Here, we present two new methodologies for smoothing in a global domain that are potentially fast enough to make the smoothing of high-resolution global fields feasible. Both approaches also consider the variability of grid point area sizes and can handle missing data appropriately. This, in turn, makes the calculation of smoothing-based metrics, such as FSS and its derivatives, in a global domain possible, which we demonstrate by evaluating the performance of operational high-resolution global precipitation forecasts provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

• Jezik: Angleški jezik
• Ključne besede: meteorology, weather forecasting, precipitation
• Vrsta gradiva: Članek v reviji
• Tipologija: 1.01 - Izvirni znanstveni članek
• Organizacija: FMF - Fakulteta za matematiko in fiziko
• Status publikacije: Objavljeno
• Različica publikacije: Objavljena publikacija
• Leto izida: 2025
• Št. strani: Str. 7417–7433
• Številčenje: Vol. 18, iss. 20
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-175178
• UDK: 551.509
• ISSN pri članku: 1991-9603
• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-18-7417-2025
• COBISS.SI-ID: 253896195
• Datum objave v RUL: 20.10.2025

Gradivo je del revije

• Naslov: Geoscientific model development
• Skrajšan naslov: Geosci. model dev.
• Založnik: Copernicus
• ISSN: 1991-9603
• COBISS.SI-ID: 522511385

Licence

• Licenca: CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Priznanje avtorstva 4.0 Mednarodna
• Povezava: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.sl
• Opis: To je standardna licenca Creative Commons, ki daje uporabnikom največ možnosti za nadaljnjo uporabo dela, pri čemer morajo navesti avtorja.

Sekundarni jezik

• Jezik: Slovenski jezik
• Ključne besede: meteorologija, napovedovanje vremena, padavine

Projekti

• Financer: ARIS - Javna agencija za znanstvenoraziskovalno in inovacijsko dejavnost Republike Slovenije
• Številka projekta: P1-0188
• Naslov: Astrofizika in fizika atmosfere