Real-time economic indicators in NSIs

Lotrič Dolinar, Aleša (avtor), Polanec, Sašo (avtor), Bavdaž, Mojca (avtor)

Timely and accurate economic data are vital, especially in times of great turbulence. Quantitative monthly output indicators often lag around one to two months, hindering effective decision-making. Consequently, research into (near) real-time estimation has surged, particularly within central banks and institutes. Recent crises have challenged traditional nowcasting approaches, proven inadequate for the current turbulent economic landscape. To assess the current state of real-time estimation, we conducted an international survey of National Statistical Institutes (NSIs) and undertook in-depth interviews with the Bank of Slovenia and the Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, both actively engaged in nowcasting and forecasting. Follow-up interviews were also held with some NSIs. Our findings revealed limited engagement with real-time estimation among NSIs, primarily due to staff shortages, despite top management support. Three key best practices emerged for accelerating indicator releases: streamlining data collection, producing granular real-time indicators shedding light on different aspects of the economy and implementing advanced modelling techniques. These practices offer a pathway for NSIs to generate more agile and impactful economic data in periods of increased turbulence and uncertainty.

• Jezik: Angleški jezik
• Ključne besede: statistics, economic statistics, models, nowcasting, economic statistics, modelling, timeliness
• Vrsta gradiva: Članek v reviji
• Tipologija: 1.01 - Izvirni znanstveni članek
• Organizacija: EF - Ekonomska fakulteta
• Status publikacije: Objavljeno
• Različica publikacije: Objavljena publikacija
• Leto izida: 2025
• Št. strani: Str. 294-304
• Številčenje: Vol. 41, iss. 2
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-172671
• UDK: 311
• ISSN pri članku: 1874-7655
• DOI: 10.1177/18747655251341466
• COBISS.SI-ID: 236857859
• Datum objave v RUL: 10.09.2025

Gradivo je del revije

• Naslov: Statistical journal of the IAOS
• Založnik: SAGE
• ISSN: 1874-7655
• COBISS.SI-ID: 1347262

Licence

• Licenca: CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Priznanje avtorstva 4.0 Mednarodna
• Povezava: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.sl
• Opis: To je standardna licenca Creative Commons, ki daje uporabnikom največ možnosti za nadaljnjo uporabo dela, pri čemer morajo navesti avtorja.

Sekundarni jezik

• Jezik: Slovenski jezik
• Ključne besede: statistika, ekonomska statistika, indikatorji, modeli

Projekti

• Financer: ARIS - Javna agencija za znanstvenoraziskovalno in inovacijsko dejavnost Republike Slovenije
• Številka projekta: V5-2346-2023
• Naslov: Spremljanje kratkoročnega gibanja tržnega gospodarstva v čim bolj realnem času

• Financer: ARIS - Javna agencija za znanstvenoraziskovalno in inovacijsko dejavnost Republike Slovenije
• Številka projekta: P5-0441-2023
• Naslov: Regeneracija ekonomije in posla