Ocena zanesljivosti izbranega elektroenergetskega sistema z rekurzivnim algoritmom pričakovanosti izgube napajanja

Podobnik, Luka (avtor), Čepin, Marko Tomaž (mentor)

Zmanjšanje emisij toplogrednih plinov pri proizvodnji električne energije je dandanes zelo aktualna tematika. Naloga se osredotoča na emisijsko problematičen elektroenergetski sistem Poljske, ki ga sestavljajo pretežno premogovne termoelektrarne. Tematika naloge je povezana s strukturo elektroenergetskega sistema ter njegovo zanesljivostjo. Analizirali smo, kako se dodatno povpraševanje po električni energiji pokriva z različnimi scenariji novih proizvodnih virov in kaj to pomeni za zanesljivost elektroenergetskega sistema. Zanesljivost elektroenergetskega sistema je bila ocenjena s pomočjo kazalca pričakovanosti izgube napajanja (LOLE). Razvit je bil rekurzivni algoritem, ki je posebej zasnovan za večje elektroenergetske sisteme, kot je poljski. Ocenjenih je bilo več scenarijev, ki vključujejo povečanje povpraševanja po električni energiji do leta 2050 ter vključitev novih proizvodnih virov. Rezultati so pokazali, da lahko trenutni elektroenergetski sistem Poljske, ki ga sestavljajo pretežno fosilni viri, opredelimo kot zelo zanesljivega. Enako pa ne moremo trditi za vse predvidene scenarije, ki zagotavljajo zmanjšanje emisij toplogrednih plinov pri proizvodnji do leta 2050. Zadnji obravnavani scenarij hkrati potrjuje tezo, da obnovljivi viri, tudi ob podpori plinskih blokov, ne morejo zadostiti potrebam večjega energetskega sistema. Dokazali smo, da se zanesljivost sistema znatno poveča z vključitvijo jedrskih blokov, ki predstavljajo nizkoogljični vir z visoko stopnjo razpoložljivosti.

• Jezik: Slovenski jezik
• Ključne besede: zanesljivost, elektroenergetski sistem, pričakovanost izgube napajanja, rekurzivni algoritem, nizkoogljični viri
• Vrsta gradiva: Diplomsko delo/naloga
• Tipologija: 2.11 - Diplomsko delo
• Organizacija: FE - Fakulteta za elektrotehniko
• Leto izida: 2025
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-166885
• COBISS.SI-ID: 224721923
• Datum objave v RUL: 29.01.2025

Sekundarni jezik

• Jezik: Angleški jezik
• Naslov: Reliability assessment of the selected power system using a recursive loss of load expectation algorithm

Izvleček

The topic of reducing greenhouse gas emissions from electric energy generation is very relevant nowadays. The focus is placed to the electric power system of Poland, which is very emission problematic system. It consists mainly of coal­fired thermal power plants. The objective of the work is related with the structure of electric power system and its reliability. It is worth analysing how additional electric energy demand is covered by different scenarios of the new generation sources and what this means for the power system reliability. The reliability of the power system was assessed through the Loss of Load Expectation indicator (LOLE). A recursive algorithm was developed which is specifically designed for large power systems such as the Polish one. Several examples in terms of different scenarios were evaluated including increase of electric power demand up to the year 2050 and including new generation sources. The results have shown that the current power system of Poland, predominantly composed of fossil fuels, can be characterized as highly reliable. However, the same cannot be said for all the proposed scenarios aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions in electric energy production by 2050. The last analyzed scenario also confirms the idea that renewable energy sources, even with the support of gas­fired plants, cannot fully meet the demands of a larger power system, if there is not enough generation power. It was demonstrated that the reliability of the system significantly increases with the inclusion of nuclear power plants, which represent a low­-carbon source with a high level of availability.

• Ključne besede: reliability, power system, loss of load expectation, recursive algorithm, low­-carbon sources