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Analiza točnosti napovedovanja namakanja z vodnobilančnim modelom IRRFIB za izbrane lokacije in kulture v Sloveniji
ID Korasa, Žiga (Avtor), ID Pintar, Marina (Mentor) Več o mentorju... Povezava se odpre v novem oknu, ID Sušnik, Andreja (Komentor)

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Izvleček
Natančno in učinkovito namakanje je postalo ključen del pridelovanja hrane. Za doseganje le tega si lahko pomagamo s sistemi podpore odločanju o namakanju. Namen in cilj magistrske naloge je analizirati točnost napovedi o namakanju, ki jih je z uporabo vodnobilančnega modela IRRFIB izdajal ARSO v okviru projekta Natančnost napovedovanja namakanja – TriN (CRP V4-1609). Poskusi, vključeni v projekt in katerih podatke smo obdelali, so trajali od 1. 10. 2016 do 30. 9. 2018 na petih lokacijah (Žalec, Jable, Bilje, Dekani in Gačnik), ki so bile vezane na že obstoječ osnovni namakalni sistem in pripadajočo kulturo. Za vsako lokacijo oz. kulturo (hmelj (Humulus lupulus), krompir (Solanum tuberosum), češnja (Prunus avium), oljka (Olea europaea) in jablana (Malus domestica)) smo primerjali modelirano in merjeno povprečno dnevno vsebnost vode v tleh ter napovedano in dejansko količino namakanja. Z analizo smo ugotavljali dogodke, kjer je bila razlika med napovedanimi in dejanskimi padavinami in dogodke, ko je vsebnost vode presegla kritične vrednosti vode v tleh, točko venenja (TV) in poljsko kapaciteto (PK). Za oceno ujemanja med modelirano in merjeno vsebnostjo vode v tleh smo uporabili statistični kazalnik celotna napaka (RMSE) in opis s Spearmanovim korelacijskim koeficientom. Razlike med modelirano in merjeno povprečno dnevno vsebnostjo vode v tleh so bile od 0 vol. % do 22,3 vol. %, največje pri kapljičnem namakanju oljk v obravnavanem obdobju leta 2017. Razlike med obravnavanima količinama namakanja znašajo od 0 mm do 16,4 mm, največje pri namakanju krompirja z mikro-razpršilci v letu 2018. Vrednost RMSE so bile od 1,2 do 13,7 vol. %. Korelacijski koeficienti so bili od 0,46 do 0,87 (srednja do zelo visoka korelacija) ali pa statistično značilne korelacije ni bilo.

Jezik:Slovenski jezik
Ključne besede:učinkovito namakanje, natančnost napovedovanja namakanja, vodnobilančni modeli, IRRFIB, sistemi podpore odločanju o namakanju, SPON.
Vrsta gradiva:Magistrsko delo/naloga
Tipologija:2.09 - Magistrsko delo
Organizacija:BF - Biotehniška fakulteta
Leto izida:2023
PID:20.500.12556/RUL-144897 Povezava se odpre v novem oknu
COBISS.SI-ID:149694211 Povezava se odpre v novem oknu
Datum objave v RUL:22.03.2023
Število ogledov:472
Število prenosov:71
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Sekundarni jezik

Jezik:Angleški jezik
Naslov:Analysis of IRRFIB water balance model irrigation forecast accuracy for selected locations and crops in Slovenia
Izvleček:
Accurate and efficient irrigation has become the key to food production. To achieve effective use of water, we can rely on decision support systems for irrigation. The purpose and goal of the master's thesis is to analyze the accuracy of irrigation forecasts, which were issued by ARSO as part of the Accuracy of Irrigation Forecasting – TriN project (CRP V4-1609) with use of the IRRFIB water balance model. The trials, which data we analyzed, lasted from 1st of October, 2016 until 30th of September, 2018 and were held on 5 locations (Žalec, Jable, Bilje, Dekani and Gačnik) with different crops (hops (Humulus lupulus), potato (Solanum tuberosum), sweet cherry (Prunus avium), olive (Olea europaea) and apple (Malus domestica)) and at least a basic irrigation system present. For each location or crop we compared the daily average amount of soil water with the modeled soil water amount and the predicted and actual amount of water used in irrigation. Based on graphs, we were able to comment on special events, when the soil water content exceeded the field capacity or depleted below wilting point. We calculated the root mean square error (RMSE) and Spearmans correlation coefficient as the measurement of correspondence between modeled and measured soil water amounts. Differences between modeled and measured daily average soil water content ranged from 0 vol. % to 22,3 vol. %, with the largest differences for drip irrigation of olives during the period in 2017. Differences between irrigation amounts analyzed ranged from 0 mm to 16,4 mm. The RMSE value ranged from 1,2 to 13,7 vol.%. Spearmans correlation coefficient ranged from 0,46 to 0,87 (moderate to very strong correlation) or there was no statistically significant correlation.

Ključne besede:Efficient irrigation, irrigation forecast accuracy, water balance models, IRRFIB, decision support systems for irrigation, SPON.

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