Ocena proizvodnje električne energije vetrne elektrarne z Weibullovo funkcijo

MERLAK, GREGOR (avtor), Čepin, Marko (mentor)

Namen magistrskega dela je predstaviti možnosti uporabe realnih meritev vetrne elektrarne, kako koristni so te podatki za napovedovanje ter izbiro vetrne elektrarne in njene lokacije. V tem delu smo pregledali različne tehnike za napovedovanje vetrne energije. Poudarek je predvsem na napovedi hitrosti in moči vetra, ki sta glavna parametra za napovedovanje vetrnih razmer. Poleg napovedi vetrne energije v magistrski nalogi predstavimo tudi metode, ki so časovno opredeljene za različne tehnike napovedovanja. Metode so osnovane na različnih primerih in se uporabljajo v različne namene napovedovanja. Za izračune razmer v preteklosti in prihodnosti je uporabljena Weibullova funkcija, ki za različne primere daje bolj ali manj natančne rezultate. S pomočjo programskega orodja MATLAB smo analizirali podatke in jih predstavili v grafični obliki, pri čemer smo uporabili meritve iz delujoče vetrne elektrarne. Na različne načine so predstavljeni grafi, ki predstavljajo vremenske razmere v preteklosti. Te razmere so predstavljene tudi z napovedovalno metodo, s katero smo napovedali proizvodnjo električne energije v prihodnosti. To smo ponovili za različna časovna obdobja, med katerimi smo primerjali napako napovedi. Rezultati kažejo, da je točnost napovedi zelo odvisna od časovnega obdobja v katerem želimo napoved. Več kot imamo meritev, bolj realna bo napoved. Nekatere napovedi lepo sledijo dejanskim razmeram, nekatere imajo večja odstopanja, ta se pojavijo v obdobju, ko imamo večje hitrosti vetra. Zanimivo je opazovati, kako se neglede na velike spremembe vetrovnih razmer meseci skozi leta ponavljajo in obdržijo približno enake vrednosti. Rezultati so zelo dober faktor za vpogled bodočih razmer in so koristni za pridobivanje novih investicij in preračun bodočih stroškov ter dobička. Na to temo je predstavljen investicijski plan vetrne elektrarne, ki nam da finančno osnovo pri projektih, kot so gradnja vetrne elektrarne. Rezultati analize ekonomske upravičenosti investicije v vetrno elektrarno kažejo, da se pri določeni subvenciji investicija izplača. Če pa se je potrebno zanašati na cene električne energije na trgu, pa ekonomske upravičenosti ne moremo potrditi.

• Jezik: Slovenski jezik
• Ključne besede: energija, vetrna elektrarna, napovedovalne metode, investicija
• Vrsta gradiva: Magistrsko delo/naloga
• Organizacija: FE - Fakulteta za elektrotehniko
• Leto izida: 2018
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-103183
• Datum objave v RUL: 14.09.2018

Sekundarni jezik

• Jezik: Angleški jezik
• Naslov: Estimation of wind power plant energy production applying Weibull function

Izvleček

The purpose of this master thesis is to present the possibilities of using realistic measurements of the wind power plant, how useful these data are for forecasting wind energy and for selecting the wind power plant and its location. In this work we have examined various techniques for forecasting wind energy. The emphasis is placed mainly on forecasts of speed and power of the wind, which are the main parameters for predicting wind conditions. In addition to wind energy forecasts, we also present methods that are time-defined for different forecasting techniques. The methods are based on a variety of examples and are used for different forecasting purposes. For calculation of the conditions in the past and in the future, the Weibul's function is used, giving more or less precise results for different cases. Using the MATLAB software tool, we analyzed the data and presented them in graphic form by using measurements from a functioning wind power plant. Graphs representing weather conditions in the past are presented in different ways. These conditions are also presented with the forecasting method, with which we announced the production of electricity in the future. We repeated this for different time periods, among which we compared the forecast error. The results show that the accuracy of the forecast is very dependent on the time period for which the forecast is desired. The more measurements we have, the better the forecast will be. Some of the forecasts closely follow the actual situation, while some of them have greater deviations, that occur during the period when we have higher wind speeds. It is interesting to observe how, regardless of the large changes in wind conditions, months are repeated over the years and are keeping approximately the same values. The results are a very good factor for the insight of the future conditions and are useful for obtaining new investments and for the calculation of future costs and profit. An investment plan for a wind farm is presented on this subject, which gives us a financial basis for projects such as the construction of a wind power plant. The results obtained from the analysis of economic viability of wind farm investment show that at a certain subsidy the investment is profitable. However, if we need to rely on electricity prices on the market, we can not confirm the economic viability.

• Ključne besede: energy, wind power plant, forecasting methods, investment