The sensitivity of road deterioration and maintenance prediction to variation of individual input parameters, are classified according to their impact elasticity in “Highway Development and Maintenance Management Model” HDM-4 version 2 Volume, which was developed by World Bank.
As classification presented in the documentation is more or less qualitative the aim of this thesis is to quantify elasticity of some of the most important parameters.
In this research sensitivity analyzed of the deterioration parameters which have been already classified in HDM-4 Volume 5 Sensitivity Class I, is provided.
As described by Mrawire et al. (1998), there are different approaches which can be used for undertaking sensitivity analysis. The way we are following here is the Traditional Ceteris Paribus (TCP) method in which by changing single input parameters and holding other parameters to be unchanged, the impact elasticity will be calculated. Impact elasticity is the ratio of the percentage change of specific result by the percentage change to individual input parameters of the pavement deterioration models. (HDM-4 V5)
This study is executed by the using of the project analysis of the HDM-4 application using TCP method, and then the results are used to find the impact elasticity which is used for sensitivity ranking. The parameters which are chosen from the sensitivity class-I for the deterioration sensitivity analysis are as follows:
Adjusted Structural Number (SNP)
Pavement Roughness
All Structural Cracking
Each parameter was studied separately in a real road section which was chosen form the Afghanistan Rind road, Kabul – Kandahar region.
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