Sensitivity Analysis of HDM-4 Pavement Deterioration Models : master thesis

Farhad Skandary, Ahmad (author), Žura, Marijan (mentor)

Občutljivost HDM-4 modelov propadanja vozišč je sicer že prikazana v dokumentaciji HDM-4 paketa, a zgolj na kvalitativnem nivoju. Namen te naloge pa je, da kvantitativno ocenimo elastičnost modelov na spremembe nekaterih ključnih parametrov. V tej nalogi sem analiziral občutljivost parametrov, ki so bili v dokumentaciji HDM-4 modela razvrščeni v I. razred. Kot je opisal Mrawire et al (1998), obstajajo različni pristopi, ki se lahko uporabljajo za izvedbo analize občutljivosti. V nalogi sem uporabil tradicionalni pristop “Ceteris paribus”, kjer opazujemo spremembe izhodnih rezultatov v primeru spremembe enega od vhodnih podatkov, pri čemer pa ostali ostanejo nespremenjeni. Iz rezultatov izračunamo elastičnost kot razmerje med procentom spremembe rezultatov in procentom spremembe vhodnega podatka. Ta študija je bila izvedena z uporabo projektne analize v paketu HDM-4. Parametri, ki so bili izbrani za analizo občutljivosti so naslednji:  Prilagojeno Strukturno število (SNP)  Neravnost vozišča  Vse strukturne razpoke Vsak parameter smo preučevali ločeno na primerih realnih cestnih odsekov ceste Kabul – Kandahar v Afganistanu.

• Language: English
• Keywords: pavement strength, pavement management system, pavement deterioration models
• Work type: Master's thesis/paper
• Typology: 2.09 - Master's Thesis
• Organization: FGG - Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering
• Place of publishing: Ljubljana
• Publisher: [A. Farhad Skandary]
• Year: 2016
• Number of pages: XVII, 110 str.
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-85741-440f430e-41e3-ac8c-7e53-f139de3881c8
• UDC: 005.525:656.022.3:005.525: (043.3)
• COBISS.SI-ID: 7615073
• Publication date in RUL: 27.09.2016

FARHAD SKANDARY, Ahmad, 2016, Sensitivity Analysis of HDM-4 Pavement Deterioration Models : master thesis [online]. Master’s thesis. Ljubljana : A. Farhad Skandary. [Accessed 23 April 2025]. Retrieved from: https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/IzpisGradiva.php?lang=eng&id=85741

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian
• Title: Analiza občutljivosti HDM-4 modelov propadanja vozišč : magistrsko delo

Abstract

The sensitivity of road deterioration and maintenance prediction to variation of individual input parameters, are classified according to their impact elasticity in “Highway Development and Maintenance Management Model” HDM-4 version 2 Volume, which was developed by World Bank. As classification presented in the documentation is more or less qualitative the aim of this thesis is to quantify elasticity of some of the most important parameters. In this research sensitivity analyzed of the deterioration parameters which have been already classified in HDM-4 Volume 5 Sensitivity Class I, is provided. As described by Mrawire et al. (1998), there are different approaches which can be used for undertaking sensitivity analysis. The way we are following here is the Traditional Ceteris Paribus (TCP) method in which by changing single input parameters and holding other parameters to be unchanged, the impact elasticity will be calculated. Impact elasticity is the ratio of the percentage change of specific result by the percentage change to individual input parameters of the pavement deterioration models. (HDM-4 V5) This study is executed by the using of the project analysis of the HDM-4 application using TCP method, and then the results are used to find the impact elasticity which is used for sensitivity ranking. The parameters which are chosen from the sensitivity class-I for the deterioration sensitivity analysis are as follows:  Adjusted Structural Number (SNP)  Pavement Roughness  All Structural Cracking Each parameter was studied separately in a real road section which was chosen form the Afghanistan Rind road, Kabul – Kandahar region.

• Keywords: gradbeništvo, magistrska dela, pločnik moč, sistem vodenja pločnik, pločnik modeli poslabšanja