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Matematično modeliranje širjenja povzročiteljev bolezni.
ID Ferk, Nika (Author), ID Urbič, Tomaž (Mentor) More about this mentor... This link opens in a new window

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Abstract
Prezračevanje ima pomembno vlogo pri zmanjševanju koncentracije infektivnih aerosolov in tveganja prenosa okužb v zaprtih prostorih. V diplomskem delu smo primerjali naravno in mehansko prezračevanje v dveh geometrijsko enakih modelih jedilnega prostora manjšega podjetja. Z računalniško dinamiko tekočin (CFD) smo določili tridimenzionalno stacionarno hitrostno polje in povprečno starost zraka, ki je bila uporabljena kot kazalnik hitrosti njegove obnove. Pridobljeno hitrostno polje smo nato uporabili kot vhodni podatek tridimenzionalnega advekcijsko-difuzijskega modela za izračun prostorske porazdelitve koncentracije kvantov okužbe. Na podlagi lokalnih koncentracij smo z Wells–Rileyjevim modelom ocenili verjetnost okužbe v celotnem prostoru in na izbranih območjih pri kavču, mizi in pultu. Rezultati analize povprečne starosti zraka so pokazali, da je mehansko prezračevanje omogočilo hitrejšo obnovo zraka, vendar ta ni bila enakomerna po celotnem prostoru. V obravnavanem scenariju je mehansko prezračevanje zmanjšalo povprečno koncentracijo kvantov okužbe za 61,4 %, povprečno verjetnost okužbe pa z 8,01 % na 3,17 %. Verjetnost okužbe se je zmanjšala na vseh analiziranih območjih, najbolj pri kavču in najmanj pri pultu. Največja koncentracija se je zmanjšala le za 5,9 %, kar kaže, da lahko tudi pri učinkovitejšem prezračevanju ostanejo lokalna območja povečane izpostavljenosti. Rezultati potrjujejo, da je treba pri ocenjevanju vpliva prezračevanja poleg povprečnih vrednosti upoštevati tudi povprečno starost zraka in prostorsko porazdelitev zračnih tokov in koncentracije kvantov okužbe. Dobljene verjetnosti predstavljajo primerjalno oceno obeh scenarijev in ne natančne napovedi dejanskega števila okužb.

Language:Slovenian
Keywords:Računalniška dinamika tekočin, prezračevanje, povprečna starost zraka, advekcijsko-difuzijski model, Wells–Rileyjev model
Work type:Bachelor thesis/paper
Organization:FKKT - Faculty of Chemistry and Chemical Technology
Year:2026
PID:20.500.12556/RUL-187855 This link opens in a new window
Publication date in RUL:15.09.2026
Views:36
Downloads:5
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Secondary language

Language:English
Title:Mathematical modelling of the spread of pathogens.
Abstract:
Ventilation plays an important role in reducing the concentration of infectious aerosols and the risk of infection transmission in indoor environments. In this thesis, natural and mechanical ventilation were compared using two geometrically identical models of a dining area in a small company. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was used to determine the three-dimensional steady-state velocity field and the mean age of air, which served as an indicator of the air renewal rate. The obtained velocity field was subsequently used as input to a three-dimensional advection–diffusion model to calculate the spatial distribution of infection quanta concentration. Based on the local concentrations, the Wells–Riley model was used to estimate the probability of infection throughout the room and in selected areas near the sofa, table, and counter. The analysis of the mean age of air showed that mechanical ventilation provided faster air renewal, although the renewal was not uniform throughout the room. In the scenario considered, mechanical ventilation reduced the mean concentration of infection quanta by 61.4 % and the mean probability of infection from 8.01 % to 3.17 %. The probability of infection decreased in all analysed areas, with the largest reduction near the sofa and the smallest near the counter. The maximum concentration decreased by only 5.9 %, indicating that local areas of increased exposure may remain even with more effective ventilation. The results confirm that, when assessing the effects of ventilation, the mean age of air and the spatial distributions of airflow and infection quanta concentration should be considered alongside average values. The calculated probabilities provide a comparative assessment of the two scenarios rather than an accurate prediction of the actual number of infections.

Keywords:Computational fluid dynamics, ventilation, mean age of air, advection–diffusion model, Wells–Riley model

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