The forecast of value of lost load in Slovenia

Bogovič, Jerneja (author)

In modern society, we are increasingly dependent on electricity, which makes interruptions in supply affect us even more and also causes both direct and indirect costs. Various indexes are available to evaluate the costs associated with interruptions in supply. Recently, the Value of Lost Load (VOLL) has been the most commonly used index to evaluate costs. Moreover, a determination of this index is mandatory in the EU and ENTSO-E countries, as a measure of the Reliability Standard. Since the determination of the VOLL based on surveys is time-consuming and estimates based on macroeconomic indicators do not provide realistic values, a regression method with the gross domestic product (GDP) as the impact factor is used to forecast the value of the VOLL for Slovenia until the year 2030. The estimated value of the VOLL for Slovenia in 2022 is 10.0€/kWh, which is in line with the value of 10.6€/kWh used to measure the Reliability Standard in Slovenian electric power system. Furthermore, the obtained results are compared with the results for Italy, which has carried out a survey-based analysis in 2021 and has a GDP in 2021 slightly higher than projected for Slovenia in 2030. Based on the regression method, the value of the VOLL for Slovenia for 2030 is estimated at 26.0€/kWh, while the value of the VOLL for Italy in 2021 based on survey is 28.4€/kWh. The results show that the application of the regression method to predict the value of the VOLL using the GDP as impact parameter is reasonable and appropriate.

• Language: English
• Keywords: gross domestic produst, GDP, regression, reliability standard, Slovenian power system, value of lost load, VOLL
• Work type: Article
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: FE - Faculty of Electrical Engineering
• Publication status: Published
• Publication version: Version of Record
• Year: 2022
• Number of pages: Str. 13-18
• Numbering: Vol. 7, issue 1
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-184998
• UDC: 621.31
• ISSN on article: 2458-8156
• COBISS.SI-ID: 285422595

Copyright

Podatek o licenci naveden na pristajalni strani članka.

• Publication date in RUL: 20.07.2026

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: European journal of engineering and natural sciences
• Publisher: CNR Publishing
• ISSN: 2458-8156
• COBISS.SI-ID: 285382147

Licences

• License: CC BY-NC 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International
• Link: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
• Description: A creative commons license that bans commercial use, but the users don’t have to license their derivative works on the same terms.

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: bruto domači proizvod, BDP, regresijska metoda, standard zanesljivosti, slovenski elektroenergetski sistem, vrednost nedobavljene energije, VOLL

Projects

• Funder: ARIS - Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency
• Project number: P2-0356
• Name: Elektroenergetski sistemi