20.500.12556/RUL-184998 The forecast of value of lost load in Slovenia In modern society, we are increasingly dependent on electricity, which makes interruptions in supply affect us even more and also causes both direct and indirect costs. Various indexes are available to evaluate the costs associated with interruptions in supply. Recently, the Value of Lost Load (VOLL) has been the most commonly used index to evaluate costs. Moreover, a determination of this index is mandatory in the EU and ENTSO-E countries, as a measure of the Reliability Standard. Since the determination of the VOLL based on surveys is time-consuming and estimates based on macroeconomic indicators do not provide realistic values, a regression method with the gross domestic product (GDP) as the impact factor is used to forecast the value of the VOLL for Slovenia until the year 2030. The estimated value of the VOLL for Slovenia in 2022 is 10.0€/kWh, which is in line with the value of 10.6€/kWh used to measure the Reliability Standard in Slovenian electric power system. Furthermore, the obtained results are compared with the results for Italy, which has carried out a survey-based analysis in 2021 and has a GDP in 2021 slightly higher than projected for Slovenia in 2030. Based on the regression method, the value of the VOLL for Slovenia for 2030 is estimated at 26.0€/kWh, while the value of the VOLL for Italy in 2021 based on survey is 28.4€/kWh. The results show that the application of the regression method to predict the value of the VOLL using the GDP as impact parameter is reasonable and appropriate. gross domestic produst GDP regression reliability standard Slovenian power system value of lost load VOLL bruto domači proizvod BDP regresijska metoda standard zanesljivosti slovenski elektroenergetski sistem vrednost nedobavljene energije VOLL true false true Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Podatek o licenci naveden na pristajalni strani članka. Članek v reviji 2026-07-20 12:21:26 2026-07-20 12:21:31 2026-07-21 04:02:45 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2022 0 0 Str. 13-18 issue 1 Vol. 7 2022 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 621.31 2458-8156 285422595 3.+Bogovic+(EJENS+2022)_(1).pdf 3.+Bogovic+(EJENS+2022)_(1).pdf 1 8910068D6CB68559F5826EE0D5E9D1F2 14f0a35815ff574d0df52004f10796a103814c6f87d3dce4ff1f251d8be66081 a4d82bcf-8424-11f1-9b0d-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=240473 https://cnrpublishing.com/index.php/ejens/article/view/13 1 8b294653-8424-11f1-9b0d-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=240472 Fakulteta za elektrotehniko 0 0 0