Political polarization and compromise in secession politics : theory note

Ramsay, Kristopher W. (author), Prezelj, Iztok (author)

Why do some secession movements lead to violent conflict, others are resolved through policy concessions, while still others end in peaceful separation? Existing theories focused on information asymmetries or commitment prob- lems cannot fully explain this variation in outcomes. We propose a bargaining theory of secession incorporat- ing three critical factors: policy polarization, credible exit, and resource rents. We demonstrate that secessions dif- fer from standard bargaining problems because successful separation creates two independent policy-setting enti- ties. Our analysis reveals that, even with complete information, policy differ ences alone can trigger conflict when polarization exceeds critical thresholds. Equally important, we identify conditions where peaceful partition becomes rational. The usefulness of this framework is demonstrated through comparative analysis of cases, including Su- dan, Czechoslovakia, and Panama. By explaining compromise, peaceful separation, and violent secession within a unified model, this research advances our theoretical understanding of when political unions endure or dissolve.

• Language: English
• Keywords: bargaining, polarization, contest
• Work type: Article
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: FDV - Faculty of Social Sciences
• Publication status: Published
• Publication version: Version of Record
• Publication date: 01.07.2026
• Year: 2026
• Number of pages: Str. 1-10
• Numbering: Vol. 70, iss. 3
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-184238
• UDC: 32:329.273
• ISSN on article: 0020-8833
• DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqag025
• COBISS.SI-ID: 283380483
• Publication date in RUL: 02.07.2026

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: International studies quarterly
• Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press
• ISSN: 0020-8833
• COBISS.SI-ID: 25667328

Licences

• License: CC BY-NC 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International
• Link: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
• Description: A creative commons license that bans commercial use, but the users don’t have to license their derivative works on the same terms.

Projects

• Funder: ARIS
• Project number: BI-US/18–19-047
• Name: Secession Games: Application of Game Theory on Secession Situations in Contemporary States