Dosedanji trendi in podnebne projekcije agroklimatskih kazalnikov za Slovenijo do konca 21. stoletja : raziskovalni podatki, obravnavani v doktorskem delu

Žnidaršič, Zala (author)

Raziskovalni podatki so bili zbrani in ustvarjeni v okviru raziskav doktorske disertacije Dosedanji trendi in podnebne projekcije agroklimatskih kazalnikov za Slovenijo do konca 21. stoletja. V doktorski disertaciji so bili pripravljen nabor agroklimatskih kazalnikov za predstavitev vpliva podnebnih pogojev na rast pšenice in koruze, kazalnik tveganja za pojav škodljivca Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith) in kazalnik tveganja za pojav pozebe pri jablani (Malus domestica Borkh.), češnji (Prunus avium L.) ter vinski trti (Vitis vinifera L.). Rezultati so pokazali, da se bo tveganje za pojav spomladanske pozebe pri jablani, češnji in vinski trti do konca stoletja povečevalo, prav tako tveganje za pojav škodljivca, ki je v trenutnem podnebju nizko. Analiza glavnih komponent kazalnikov za pšenico (Triticum aestivum L.) in koruzo (Zea mays L.) je pokazala, da je za koruzo glavni omejujoči dejavnik vročinski stres, pri pšenici pa je bila izračunana pozitivna korelacija s prezimovalnimi razmerami. Za obe poljščini smo prav tako izračunali pozitivno povezavo z veliko količino padavin. Z vidika temperaturnih pogojev rezultati podnebnih projekcij za 21. stoletje nakazujejo na podaljševanje rastne dobe, povečevanje pogostosti pogojev vročinskega stresa pri pšenici in koruzi, pogojev nočnega vročinskega stresa in visoke vlage ter pogojev s toplejšo in daljšo rastno dobo, pri čemer je trend bolj izrazit v primeru RCP8.5. Prav tako projekcije do konca stoletja nakazujejo na omiljevanje prezimovalnih razmer ter zmerno povečevanje pogostosti pogojev z veliko količino padavin.

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: agroklimatski kazalniki, podnebne projekcije, vročinski stres rastlin, spomladanska pozeba, tujerodni škodljivci, metoda glavnih komponent, metoda Maksimalne entropije, rastlinska pridelava
• Typology: 2.20 - Complete scientific database of research data
• Geographic coverage: Ljubljana, Slovenija
• Time coverage: Od/From 2022-01-15 do/to 2025-04-09
• Organization: BF - Biotechnical Faculty
• Year: 2026
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-182920
• Data col. methods: Synthesis; Aggregation; Simulation
• Publication date in RUL: 28.05.2026

Licences

• License: CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
• Link: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Description: This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.

Secondary language

• Language: English
• Title: Recent trends and climate projections of agroclimatic indices for the 21st century in Slovenia : research data underlying the doctoral dissertation

Abstract

The research data were collected and generated as part of the research for the doctoral dissertation Recent trends and climate projections of agroclimatic indices for the 21st century in Slovenia. In this doctoral dissertation, a set of agroclimatic indicators was developed to represent the impact of climatic conditions on the growth of wheat and maize. Additionally, an indicator for the occurrence of the pest Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith) was developed, along with an agroclimatic indicator of frost occurrence in regards to apple (Malus domestica Borkh.), sweet cherry trees (Prunus avium L.) and grapevines (Vitis vinifera L.). The latter showed that the risk of spring frost in apple, cherry, and grapevine will continue to increase by the end of the century, as will the risk of pest occurrence, which is currently low under current climate conditions. A principal component analysis of indicators for wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) showed that heat stress is the main limiting factor for maize, while a positive correlation with overwintering conditions was calculated for wheat. For both crops, a positive correlation with high precipitation conditions was also calculated. The results of climate projections for the 21st century indicate a lengthening of the growing season, an increase in the frequency of heat stress conditions for wheat and maize, nighttime heat stress and high humidity, and more frequent conditions with a warmer and longer growing season, with the trend being more pronounced under RCP8.5. Projections through the end of the century also indicate a mildening of winter conditions and a moderate increase in the frequency of conditions with high precipitation.

• Keywords: agroclimatic indicators, climate projections, plant heat stress, spring frost, invasive pests, principal component analysis, Maximum entropy method, plant production