The reliability of basketball shooting tests with binary outcomes

Jutreša, Robert (author), Štrumbelj, Erik (author), Erčulj, Frane (author), Supej, Matej (author), Marković, Marko (author)

This paper addresses distinct questions related to the reliability of basketball shooting tests: (i) how to appropriately model data from tests with binary outcomes, (ii) how many shots are needed for the tests to be reliable, and (iii) can additional information from shot trajectories (shot hit location and entry angle) improve the reliability of the shooting tests? We designed a Bayesian statistical model that takes into account the binary nature of the outcomes and can be used to model test data for multiple individuals simultaneously. We demonstrated the utility of our approach with a simulation study and on a real-world example with 27 basketball players and 7309 shots across 4 different shooting tests. Results showed the practical importance of modelling data as binary and the relatively large sample sizes required for the tests to be reliable. We also showed that additional information from shot trajectories provides valuable insights into an individual’s shooting, but we were unable to achieve a meaningful improvement in the estimation of shooting ability.

• Language: English
• Keywords: sport, basketball, shot trajectory, Bayesian statistics, hierarchical modelling, Rao-Blackwellization, empirical study, simulation study
• Work type: Article
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: FRI - Faculty of Computer and Information Science ; FŠ - Faculty of Sport
• Publication status: Published
• Publication version: Author Accepted Manuscript
• Year: 2024
• Number of pages: Str. 2352–2360
• Numbering: Vol. 42, no. 24
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-180680
• UDC: 796.323
• ISSN on article: 1466-447X
• DOI: 10.1080/02640414.2024.2430914
• COBISS.SI-ID: 216737795
• Publication date in RUL: 16.04.2026

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: Journal of sports sciences
• Shortened title: J. sports sci.
• Publisher: Taylor & Francis
• ISSN: 1466-447X
• COBISS.SI-ID: 4350129

Licences

• License: CC BY-NC 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International
• Link: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
• Description: A creative commons license that bans commercial use, but the users don’t have to license their derivative works on the same terms.

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: šport, košarka, pot strela, Bayesova statistika, hierarhično modeliranje, Rao zatemnitev, empirična študija, simulacijska študija, mišice, športne poškodbe

Projects

• Funder: ARIS - Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency
• Project number: P5-0147
• Name: Kineziologija monostrukturnih, polistrukturnih in konvencionalnih športov

• Funder: ARIS - Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency
• Project number: P2-0442
• Name: Podatkovne vede in digitalna preobrazba