In the third decade of the 21st century, mankind with the socioeconomic order of globalization is at the last crossroad between sustainability and collapse. The contemporary climate change, socio-economic crises and international conflicts are mutually self-reinforcing and converging into an extinction-type event. In the age of the Anthropocene extinction, amid growing socio-economic instabilities and at the precipice of the climate change crisis, the UN’s response are the sustainable development goals (SDG). The UN’s SDGs are unprecedented in size as they are set to end global poverty, hunger, climate change and 14 other development goals by 2030. This development path of accelerated economic growth and industrialization is confronted with the existential threat of climate change and the combined effects of the Anthropocene. According to the latest scientific data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the window for decisive global decarbonization is closing by 2030. Therefore, this thesis explores this dichotomy, between ecological sustainability and economic development within a world with diminishing natural resources. In the middle is the question of democracy and its place among the quest for development and ecological sustainability.
The main research problem of the dissertation derives from the title, the coexistence of development, democracy and ecological sustainability. Specifically, the critical problem of the 21st century is to provide the compatibility of the UN’s SDG model, democracy and stable biosphere during the climate change crisis. The complex existence of this trinity compels the usage of three research questions on the economic and ecological consequences of development and its coexistence with democracy. The first research question refers to the macroeconomic benefits of official development assistance (ODA) towards the donor countries and their corporations. The dissertation analyses the consequences of these benefits, whether they are harmful to the developing countries or if it is a purely symbiotic relationship. Specifically, the sub-question will explore the extent of the ODA-induced Dutch Disease and the exponential rise of the sovereign debt of the developing countries. Using the empirically proven monetary theory, an interdisciplinary holistic analysis can show a novel perspective of ODA and its consequences. This research question will use the explorative approach. The second research question refers to the coexistence of the development paradigm with democracy. Specifically, the research question critically explores the democratic deficit of the main development organizations. The following sub-research question analyses whether the main development organizations have provided more ODA to democratic governments or undemocratic political systems. The complexity of this research question and subquestion compels the use of critical theory as a research paradigm that emphasizes the importance of understanding power relationships and social structures. The third research question refers to the coexistence of the development paradigm with ecological sustainability. This research approach of analysing the depleting natural resources and growing capitalist economy amid the climate change crisis gives an alternative view of the UN’s sustainable development paradigm. The thesis is based on multiple case studies in order to analyse the different research questions. The collection of data was predominantly from three methodological sources: primary sources such as official documents, archival records, secondary data and analysis of renowned authors, as well as political ethnography. The main scientific contribution of the dissertation is the use of empirically proven monetary theory and the use of the latest scientific data from the IPCC and natural scientists. For the past seven decades, the World Bank economists have been using the financial intermediation theory of banking in their economic models while neglecting the empirically proven credit creation theory of banking. In terms of sustainable development, this theory represents a paradigm shift as there is no shortage of the reserve currency, but of finite natural resources. In other words, the path for the UN’s SDG is not limited by funds, but by the limited global carbon budget and diminishing natural resources. Given the realities of the empirically proven monetary theory, the results show significant benefits of ODA towards the donor countries and their corporations, while unintended consequences for the developing countries. Within this approach, the official data show that the developing countries have been transferring significantly more funds and resources than they have been receiving as ODA. Additionally, there are side-effects in terms of the accumulation of the historically largest debt of the developing countries and the Dutch Disease. The thesis has shown that the Dutch Disease exists within some developing countries and there is a saturation point of ODA that triggers it. Although the current side effects are minimal, the Dutch Disease can prove to be a barrier to the global big push for the UN’s SDG. The thesis also explores the democratic deficit within the largest development organizations, its history, voting processes, and lending practices. This historical analysis is crucial as it analyses Keynes's original development proposal that could have been more democratic and sustainable. The thesis explores the less-known bodies of the World Bank Group, the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes. The decisions and actions of this international tribunal have undermined the democracy and ecological sustainability of the developing countries. The quantitative analysis of development aid to undemocratic political systems has led to results that development and food aid has been used for promoting the foreign policies of the developed countries. Contrary to the best advice from the World Bank economists, the development aid has been concentrated on undemocratic political systems. In other words, less ODA has been provided to democratic developing countries that have good governance and implement sound economic policies. In terms of ecological sustainability, the thesis explores the contradictions within the UN’s SDG. The latest scientific data from the IPCC indicate that the world is in a global ecological overshoot, with a relatively small carbon budget left for avoiding an environmental collapse. The planetary boundaries and the climate tipping points represent an insurmountable obstacle to the UN’s SDG. As of 2023, the global greenhouse gasses have reached levels where there is no viable decarbonization scenario for keeping at below 2°C average global warming. Therefore, the IPCC hopes for a temporary global warming overshoot while the negative emissions technology (NET) would rectify the carbon concentration in the future. The largest engineering projects in the history of mankind, the NET and the SDG would require the largest surplus net energy. However, the lack of interdisciplinary research within the UN did not anticipate the contemporary economic and energy crises that undermine the feasibility of the NET. The UN’s SDGs are reliant on technological advances in energy efficiency but neglect the Jevons paradox and the rebound effect. Therefore, even with the most conservative estimations of the rebound effect, the IPCC’s carbon budget strategy will have a miscalculation of 20%-30% in GHG reduction. Additionally, the climate change crisis is being amplified by the depletion of natural resources. The thesis analyses the global peaks in phosphorus, soil and water that will undermine the SDG goal of doubling global agriculture. Finally, the UN’s SDG neglects the climate tipping points that are accelerating the climate change crisis. Given the scientific data on the climate change crisis, it is becoming highly unlikely that the SDG will be achieved by the determined deadline of 2030. Hence, the thesis proposes a more modest sustainable development goal focused on the survival of humanity and the biosphere with rapid decarbonization, deindustrialization, and de-dollarisation. The global petrodollar monetary system is not democratic and it is not compatible with the IPCC’s decarbonization plans. However, this sudden deindustrialization and decarbonization can eliminate the global aerosol masking effect, while cascading into abrupt irreversible global warming and mass extinction. Therefore, the scientific data shows an unavoidable global ecological overshoot followed by a rapid reduction of the global social-economic complexity. In summary, the main development organizations will have to modify the sustainable development goals to the new environmental reality of the Anthropocene.
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