Global rainfall erosivity projections for 2050 and 2070

Panagos, Panos (author), Borrelli, Pasquale (author), Matthews, Francis (author), Liakos, Leonidas (author), Bezak, Nejc (author), Diodato, Nazzareno (author), Ballabio, Cristiano (author)

The erosive force of rainfall (rainfall erosivity) is a major driver of soil, nutrient losses worldwide and an important input for soil erosion assessments models. Here, we present a comprehensive set of future erosivity projections at a 30 arc-second (~1 km$^2$) spatial scale using 19 downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) simulating three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for the periods 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. The future rainfall erosivity projections were obtained based on a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) approach relating rainfall depth to rainfall erosivity through a series of (bio)climatic covariates. Compared to the 2010 Global Rainfall erosivity baseline, we estimate a potential average increase in global rainfall erosivity between 26.2 and 28.8% for 2050 and 27–34.3% for 2070. Therefore, climate change and the consequential increase in rainfall erosivity is the main driver of the projected + 30–66% increase in soil erosion rates by 2070. Our results were successfully compared with 20 regional studies addressing the rainfall erosivity projections. We release the whole dataset of future rainfall erosivity projections composed of 102 simulation scenarios, with the aim to support further research activities on soil erosion, soil conservation and climate change communities. We expect these datasets to address the needs of both the Earth system modeling community and policy makers. In addition, we introduce a modeling approach to estimate future erosivity and make further assessments at global and continental scales.

• Language: English
• Keywords: climate change, agriculture, soil health, land use change, R-factor, food security, policy
• Work type: Article
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: FGG - Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering
• Publication status: Published
• Publication version: Version of Record
• Year: 2022
• Number of pages: 14 str.
• Numbering: Vol. 610, art. 127865
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-137053
• UDC: 502/504:556
• ISSN on article: 0022-1694
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127865
• COBISS.SI-ID: 106880515
• Publication date in RUL: 31.05.2022

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: Journal of hydrology
• Shortened title: J. Hydrol.
• Publisher: North-Holland, Elsevier
• ISSN: 0022-1694
• COBISS.SI-ID: 25750784

Licences

• License: CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
• Link: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Description: This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: podnebne spremembe, kmetijstvo, tla, spremembe rabe tal, R-faktor, varnost hrane