Global rainfall erosivity projections for 2050 and 2070

Panagos, Panos (author), Borrelli, Pasquale (author), Matthews, Francis (author), Liakos, Leonidas (author), Bezak, Nejc (author), Diodato, Nazzareno (author), Ballabio, Cristiano (author)

The erosive force of rainfall (rainfall erosivity) is a major driver of soil, nutrient losses worldwide and an important input for soil erosion assessments models. Here, we present a comprehensive set of future erosivity projections at a 30 arc-second (~1km2) spatial scale using 19 downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) simulating three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for the periods 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. The future rainfall erosivity projections were obtained based on a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) approach relating rainfall depth to rainfall erosivity through a series of (bio)climatic covariates. Compared to the 2010 Global Rainfall erosivity baseline, we estimate a potential average increase in global rainfall erosivity between 26.2-28.8% for 2050 and 27-34.3% for 2070. Therefore, climate change and the consequential increase in rainfall erosivity is the main driver of the projected +30-66% increase in soil erosion rates by 2070.

• Language: English
• Keywords: climate change, agriculture, soil health, land use change, R-factor, food security
• Work type: Article
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: FGG - Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering
• Publication date: 01.01.2022
• Year: 2022
• Number of pages: [43] str.
• Numbering: Letn.
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-137053
• UDC: 502/504:556
• ISSN on article: 0022-1694
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127865
• COBISS.SI-ID: 106880515
• Publication date in RUL: 31.05.2022

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: Journal of hydrology
• Shortened title: J. hydrol.
• Publisher: Elsevier
• ISSN: 0022-1694
• COBISS.SI-ID: 25750784

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: podnebne spremembe, kmetijstvo, tla, spremembe rabe tal, R-faktor, varnost hrane