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Global rainfall erosivity projections for 2050 and 2070
ID Panagos, Panos (Author), ID Borrelli, Pasquale (Author), ID Matthews, Francis (Author), ID Liakos, Leonidas (Author), ID Bezak, Nejc (Author), ID Diodato, Nazzareno (Author), ID Ballabio, Cristiano (Author)

URLURL - Source URL, Visit https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127865 This link opens in a new window

Abstract
The erosive force of rainfall (rainfall erosivity) is a major driver of soil, nutrient losses worldwide and an important input for soil erosion assessments models. Here, we present a comprehensive set of future erosivity projections at a 30 arc-second (~1km2) spatial scale using 19 downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) simulating three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for the periods 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. The future rainfall erosivity projections were obtained based on a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) approach relating rainfall depth to rainfall erosivity through a series of (bio)climatic covariates. Compared to the 2010 Global Rainfall erosivity baseline, we estimate a potential average increase in global rainfall erosivity between 26.2-28.8% for 2050 and 27-34.3% for 2070. Therefore, climate change and the consequential increase in rainfall erosivity is the main driver of the projected +30-66% increase in soil erosion rates by 2070.

Language:English
Keywords:climate change, agriculture, soil health, land use change, R-factor, food security
Work type:Article
Typology:1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization:FGG - Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering
Publication date:01.01.2022
Year:2022
Number of pages:[43] str.
Numbering:Letn.
PID:20.500.12556/RUL-137053 This link opens in a new window
UDC:502/504:556
ISSN on article:0022-1694
DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127865 This link opens in a new window
COBISS.SI-ID:106880515 This link opens in a new window
Publication date in RUL:31.05.2022
Views:1135
Downloads:60
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PANAGOS, Panos, BORRELLI, Pasquale, MATTHEWS, Francis, LIAKOS, Leonidas, BEZAK, Nejc, DIODATO, Nazzareno and BALLABIO, Cristiano, 2022, Global rainfall erosivity projections for 2050 and 2070. Journal of hydrology [online]. 2022. [Accessed 5 April 2025]. DOI 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127865. Retrieved from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127865
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Record is a part of a journal

Title:Journal of hydrology
Shortened title:J. hydrol.
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:0022-1694
COBISS.SI-ID:25750784 This link opens in a new window

Secondary language

Language:Slovenian
Keywords:podnebne spremembe, kmetijstvo, tla, spremembe rabe tal, R-faktor, varnost hrane

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