Forecasting electricity prices : a machine learning approach

Castelli, Mauro (avtor), Groznik, Aleš (avtor), Popovič, Aleš (avtor)

The electricity market is a complex, evolutionary, and dynamic environment. Forecasting electricity prices is an important issue for all electricity market participants. In this study, we shed light on how to improve electricity price forecasting accuracy through the use of a machine learning technique—namely, a novel genetic programming approach. Drawing on empirical data from the largest EU energy markets, we propose a forecasting model that considers variables related to weather conditions, oil prices, and CO2 coupons and predicts energy prices 24 h ahead. We show that the proposed model provides more accurate predictions of future electricity prices than existing prediction methods. Our important findings will assist the electricity market participants in forecasting future price movements.

• Jezik: Angleški jezik
• Ključne besede: energetics, price, informatics, energy sector, electricity prices, forecasting, machine learning, geometric semantic, based programming
• Vrsta gradiva: Članek v reviji
• Tipologija: 1.01 - Izvirni znanstveni članek
• Organizacija: EF - Ekonomska fakulteta
• Status publikacije: Objavljeno
• Različica publikacije: Objavljena publikacija
• Leto izida: 2020
• Št. strani: 16 str.
• Številčenje: Vol. 13, iss. 5, art. 119
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-116491
• UDK: 659.2:004
• ISSN pri članku: 1999-4893
• DOI: 10.3390/a13050119
• COBISS.SI-ID: 14509571
• Datum objave v RUL: 25.05.2020

Gradivo je del revije

• Naslov: Algorithms
• Skrajšan naslov: Algorithms
• Založnik: MDPI
• ISSN: 1999-4893
• COBISS.SI-ID: 517501977

Licence

• Licenca: CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Priznanje avtorstva 4.0 Mednarodna
• Povezava: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.sl
• Opis: To je standardna licenca Creative Commons, ki daje uporabnikom največ možnosti za nadaljnjo uporabo dela, pri čemer morajo navesti avtorja.
• Začetek licenciranja: 08.05.2020

Sekundarni jezik

• Jezik: Slovenski jezik
• Ključne besede: energetika, cena, informatika

Projekti

• Financer: ARRS - Agencija za raziskovalno dejavnost Republike Slovenije
• Številka projekta: J5-9329
• Naslov: Poslovna analitika in poslovni modeli v oskrbovalnih verigah

• Financer: FCT - Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P.
• Številka projekta: DSAIPA/DS/0022/2018
• Akronim: GADgET