Trajnostno gospodarjenje z gozdovi je mogoče le s skrbnim načrtovanjem. Za napovedovanje razvoja gozdov uporabljamo rastne modele. Prof. Hasenauer s sodelavci (BOKU, Dunaj) so razvili rastni model MOSES; zasnovan je bil predvsem za malopovršinsko raznomerne gozdove, ki so v Sloveniji pogosti. Model pri nas še nikoli ni bil uporabljen, zato smo raziskali možnosti njegove uporabe na primeru jelovo-bukovih in jelovih gozdov. Podatke slovenske gozdne inventure iz dveh gozdnogospodarskih enot (Leskova dolina in Ribnica na Pohorju) smo prilagodili zahtevam rastnega modela MOSES. Model smo validirali na podlagi primerjave izmerjenih in simuliranih debelinskih prirastkov dreves, in sicer za jelko, smreko in bukev. Nato smo simulirali razvoj gozdov v naslednjih petdesetih letih glede na tri scenarije gospodarjenja: 1) brez ukrepanja, 2) slučajno redčenje in 3) visoko redčenje. Rezultati raziskave kažejo, da je mogoče podatke gozdne inventure Zavoda za gozdove Slovenije prilagoditi za modeliranje z MOSES. Parametrizirana verzija modela, ki smo jo razvili v naši raziskavi, omogoča simuliranje razvoja jelovo-bukovih in jelovih gozdov v Sloveniji. Model je mogoče še dopolniti in ga uporabiti pri načrtovanju in upravljanju gozdov v Sloveniji.Sustainable forest management is only possible by careful planning. In order to facilitate a forecast of the forest development, forest growth models were developed. The forest growth model MOSES has been developed by professor Hasenauer and his coworkers (BOKU, Wien). The forest growth simulator MOSES has been specially designed for handling differently aged mixed forests with small-scale usage, as they can also be found in Slovenia. Because the model had never been used in Slovenia, the use possibilities here have been studied on the example of fir and fir-beech forests. Data from two different business units of the Slovenian forest inventory (Leskova dolina and Ribnica na Pohorju) have been adapted for the simulation with MOSES. The model was validated by comparing the observed and simulated growth of the breast diameter of spruce, fir and beech. Subsequently three possible forest management scenarios for a period of next 50 years were simulated: 1) without interference, 2) random thinning and 3) crown thinning. It was shown that the input data of the forest inventory could be successfully adapted to the requirements of MOSES. The results of the validation showed that MOSES can be used in the parameterized form to simulate and forecast the DBH development of Slovenian fir and fir-beech forests. In the future the potential and the validity of the model can be improved.
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