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Analiza časovne porazdelitve padavin pri pojavljanju zemeljskih plazov v vzhodni Sloveniji
Jordanova, Galena (Author), Verbovšek, Timotej (Mentor) More about this mentor... This link opens in a new window, Jemec Auflič, Mateja (Co-mentor)

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Abstract
V magistrski nalogi so predstavljeni različni pristopi za določitev mejnih vrednosti padavin, pri katerih se pojavljajo plitvi zemeljski plazovi. Mejne vrednosti so osnoven vhodni podatek v sistemih za zgodnje opozarjanje pred pojavi plazov. Z validacijo obstoječih modelov, ki so sestavni del slovenskega sistema za zgodnje opozarjanje MASPREM, se je izkazalo, da je bilo za območje vzhodne Slovenije (natančneje za območja Posavskega hribovja, Koroške itd.) več zgrešenih napovedi zaradi previsokih sprožilnih količin. Z empirično metodo, t.j. z analizami predhodnih padavin, urnih in maksimalnih urnih intenzitet, so bile na podlagi inženirsko-geoloških enot določene nove sprožilne količine zemeljskih plazov za območje Posavskega hribovja. Pri tem je bil raziskan tudi vpliv litologije na pojavljanje plitvih plazov. Izkazalo se je, da so se plazovi na raziskovanem območju pojavljali že pri manjših količinah padavin (35-45 mm v času od enega do treh dni), pri tem pa je najverjetneje veliko vlogo imela litološka podlaga, saj se je več kot 80% plazov zgodilo na različnih nesprijetih sedimentih in sedimentnih kamninah različne starosti. V sodelovanju s strokovnjaki iz Italijanskega nacionalnega raziskovalnega centra v Perugii (CNR IRPI) so bile določene nove mejne vrednosti za celo Slovenijo z orodjem CTRL-T. Algoritem na podlagi statističnih analiz urnih padavinskih podatkov in lokacij ter časa nastanka plazov določi padavinske dogodke, ki so najverjetneje sprožili številne plazove. Pri tem so se najbolje izkazale mejne vrednosti, pri katerih je 15% padavinskih dogodkov prožilo plazove pod pragom oz. pod sprožilnimi količinami plazov. Plazovi, ki so se sprožili pod določenim pragom mejnih vrednosti, so najverjetneje posledica človekovega vpliva in ne odražajo realnega stanja v naravi.

Language:Slovenian
Keywords:zemeljski plazovi, sistem za zgodnje opozarjanje, mejne vrednosti, padavine, Posavsko hribovje, vzhodna Slovenija
Work type:Master's thesis/paper (mb22)
Organization:NTF - Faculty of Natural Sciences and Engineering
Year:2019
COBISS.SI-ID:1526110 Link is opened in a new window
Views:265
Downloads:123
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Secondary language

Language:English
Title:Analysis of temporal rainfall patterns for landslide occurrences in eastern Slovenia
Abstract:
This master’s thesis presents the definition of new thresholds for rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Slovenia using different methods. The thresholds are basic input data for the early warning systems. Validation of the models, that are currently in use in the Slovenian early warning system MASPREM, showed significant number of missed alarms for eastern Slovenia (especially for Posavsko hills, Koroška etc.), due to thresholds set too high. Based on empirical methods, using analyses of antecedent rainfall and hourly rainfall data for mean and peak intensities of the rainfall events, new thresholds were defined for the area of Posavsko hills. The effect of the lithology on shallow landslides was also researched. The results showed, that the landslides in Posavsko hills occurred at lower amounts of rainfall (35-45 mm in a matter of 1 to 3 days) than previously defined, which is probably the consequence of the lithological characteristics of the area. Most of the landslides (more than 80%) occurred on unconsolidated sediments and sedimentary rocks of different age. In collaboration with experts from the Italian national research center in Perugia (CNR IRPI) new thresholds were also defined with the use of the tool CTRL-T for the whole area of Slovenia. The algorithm is based on statistical analysis of hourly rainfall data and documented spatio-temporal occurrences of landslides, which then defines the most probable rainfall events, responsible for the slope failures. The best result is the threshold with 15% non-exceedance probability, which means that 15% of slope failures occurred bellow the threshold, i.e. at lower amounts of rainfall, probably as a result of human impact on slope stability.

Keywords:landslides, early warning system, thresholds, rainfall, Posavsko hills, Eastern Slovenia

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