Analiza občutljivosti parametrov hidrološkega modela Bolska : diplomska naloga

Mutavčić, Darko (author), Brilly, Mitja (mentor), Vidmar, Andrej (comentor)

HBV je konceptualen hidrološki model, ki se uporablja pri hidrološkem napovedovanju in študiju vodnih bilanc. V tem delu je HBV-light modelu podvrženo 190 km2 veliko porečje Bolske. S pomočjo orodja Monte Carlo Simulacije, ki je vgrajen v HBV-light modelu, smo analizirali individualno občutljivost parametrov, občutljivost s spreminjanjem dveh parametrov in vpliv parametrov na maksimalni pretok pri poplavi. Analize so narejene na podlagi koeficienta učinkovitosti oziroma Nash-Sutcliffovega kriterija. Individualna analiza je pokazala večjo občutljivost parametrov generiranja odtoka glede na parametre ostalih treh računov, predvsem vpliv iztoka srednjega rezervoarja in vpliv iztoka spodnjega rezervoarja na celokupni odtok. Parametri računa akumulacije in taljenja snega so se izkazali kot neobčutljivi za dani model. Ob analizi občutljivosti s spreminjanjem dveh parametrov hkrati smo pri večini kombinacij parametrov opazili medsebojno odvisnost parametrov, kar odraža negotovost v rezultatih. Parametri, ki so izkazali največ vpliva na maksimalni pretok so: K0, K1, UZL, PERC in FC.

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: gradbeništvo, diplomska naloga, UNI, VKI, površinski odtok, Bolska, HBV model, analiza občutljivosti
• Work type: Undergraduate thesis
• Typology: 2.11 - Undergraduate Thesis
• Organization: FGG - Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering
• Place of publishing: Ljubljana
• Publisher: [D. Mutavčić]
• Year: 2016
• Number of pages: XX, 58 str.
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-86570
• UDC: 556.06(497.4)(043.2)
• COBISS.SI-ID: 7750497
• Publication date in RUL: 14.11.2016

Secondary language

• Language: English
• Title: Parameter sensitivity analysis of hydrological model Bolska

Abstract

Conceptual hydrological model HBV is extensively used in operational hydrological forecasting and water balance studies. In this paper, we apply the HBV model on 190 km2 basin Bolska. Using the tools of Monte Carlo simulation, which is built in the HBV-light model, we analyzed the individual sensitivity of the parameters, a sensitivity by changing the two parameters and the influence of parameters on the maximum flow in the flood. Analysis were done on the basis of Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. Individual analysis showed greater sensitivity of response routine parameters with respect to other three routines; it is most clearly seen through the influence of the middle box outflow and lower box outflow on the total runoff. Parameters of the snow routine have proved to be insensitive. By varying two parameters simultaneously the sensitivity analysis revealed interdependence of parameters in most of parameter combinations, reflecting the uncertainty in the results. Parameters that showed the most influence on the maximum flow are: K0, K1, UZL, PERC and FC.

• Keywords: graduation thesis, civil engineering, Runoff, Bolska catchment, HBV model, sensitivity analysis