Epidemic models for the spread of infectious diseases are mathematical models that try to explain the spread of infectious diseases. The most famous mathematical model for the spread of an infectious disease is the SIR model. It was first publushed by Kermack in McKendrick in 1927 and is formulated as a system of differential equations. Study of epidemic models enables us to predict the outcome of a disease spread within population and by that gives us a prediction wheather the disease dies out or turns into an epidemic. In this diploma paper we analyze the SIR model and try to predict the outcome of a certain disease in a population. We define the most important quantity in mathematical epidemiology, the basic reproduction number, which/that determines wheather there is an epidemic or not. Besides the SIR model, we introduce other disease spread models which in its analysis include additional population classes. These models give a more accurate prediction of a disease spread.
|