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Izgradnja visokovodnega prognostičnega in opozorilnega sistema in zagotavljanje njegove zanesljivosti in operativnosti
Pogačnik, Nejc (Author), Steinman, Franc (Mentor) More about this mentor... This link opens in a new window, Šraj, Mojca (Co-mentor)

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Abstract
Kakovosten in operativen visokovodni prognostični sistem je eden od osnovnih elementov za pripravo in odziv na poplavne dogodke. Delo opredeljuje namen, sestavo in vpliv sistema pri zmanjšanju škodljivega delovanja voda. V zadnjih desetih letih so v Sloveniji poplave zahtevale izredno visoke stroške in izgradnja sistema je del negradbenih ukrepov za zmanjševanje posledic. Doseganje učinka pri napovedovanju je najpogosteje pogojeno s spremljanjem in preverjanjem. S tem namenom je potrebno opredeliti metodologijo in teoretična izhodišča za operativno spremljanje kakovosti modelskih zasnov ter zagotavljati njihovo kontinuiteto delovanje. Sistem za napovedovanje visokih voda sestoji iz številnih delov, ki so medsebojno povezani in soodvisni. Za delovanje potrebujemo zadosti gosto mrežo merilnih mest, hidrološki model, hidrodinamični model, rezultate meteoroloških modelov, ustrezno predstavitev rezultatov modelskih zasnov in v zadnjem koraku tudi analize kakovosti in/ali učinkovitosti. Metode analiz so medsebojno različne in vsaka omogoča ciljno določanje in predstavitev pomanjkljivosti rezultatov. Pri analizi so bile v obravnavanem primeru uporabljene in predstavljene vizualne, zvezne in binomske analize. Kot najprimernejša in učinkovita se je izkazala metoda relativne operativne karakteristike (ROC), ki prikazuje verjetnost pravilne napovedi. Poleg diagrama zanesljivosti omogoča kakovostno razumevanje preteklega delovanja in s tem razumljivo mero zaupanja za prihodnje rezultate modelskih izračunov. Kazalniki kot Nash-Sucliffe (NSE), Kling - Gubta (KGE) ter drugi statistični kazalniki so se izkazali kot primernejši za umerjanje in analizo, medtem ko so kazalniki uspešnosti v hidrologiji reprezentativni predvsem pri lokacijah s sorazmerno enakomerno porazdelitvijo pretokov.

Language:Slovenian
Keywords:sistem za hidrološko napovedovanje, prognostični sistem za visoke vode, hidrološki model, hidravlični model, monitoring, opozarjanje, spremljanje hidrološkega stanja, verifikacija
Work type:Master's thesis (m2)
Tipology:2.09 - Master's Thesis
Organization:FGG - Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering
Year:2016
Publisher:[N. Pogačnik]
Place:Ljubljana
UDC:556.166(043.3)
COBISS.SI-ID:7578209 Link is opened in a new window
Views:1126
Downloads:326
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Secondary language

Language:English
Title:Flood forecasting and warning system development its reliability and operational ability
Abstract:
Quality of operational flood forecasting system (FFS) is the essential component for efficient response to the foreseen flood events. The thesis is describing why FFS is needed, how does it help, what are its parts and how does it influence the response process. But the basic question is how well the results are. In the last ten years, Slovenian floods demanded extremely high costs. To address this costly water power the development of FFS is part of nonstructural measures to reduce the flood impact. Achieving good forecasts is mostly connected to hard work in verification and learning from the models results. Therefore, it is crucial to define the methodology for operational control of the model formation to ensure continuity and improvement of its operation. FFS consists of several parts, which are interconnected and interdependent. The system requires and operational monitoring network, hydrologic model, hydrodynamic model, meteorological models, visualization and presentation of the results and last but not least the analysis of quality, efficiency, accuracy, reliability and skill. Methods of analysis are very alike and each provides target identification and presentation of the shortcomings of the results. In the analysis, deterministic and continuous analyses were used. As most efficient was proven the relative operating characteristics (ROC), which shows the relative probability of correct prediction. Verification indexes as Nash-Sucliffe efficiency (NSE) or Kling-Gubta efficiency (KGE) are seen as more useful in calibration process and binary success indexes are hydrologically seen often more appropriate for uniform discharge distributions.

Keywords:Flood forecasting system, hydrological model, hydrodynamic model, monitoring, data management, warning, verification

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