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Hidrološka regionalizacija verjetnostnih analiz visokovodnih konic v Sloveniji
Zabret, Katarina (Author), Brilly, Mitja (Author)

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Abstract
Poplave so v Sloveniji vedno pogostejši pojav in so na tretjem mestu glede na povzročeno škodo zaradi naravnih nesreč. Osnova za učinkovito upravljanje z vodami in zaščito pred njihovim škodljivim delovanjem so zanesljive verjetnostne analize, s katerimi ocenimo povratno dobo pojava. Nadgradnja klasičnih verjetnostnih analiz visokovodnih konic je hidrološka regionalizacija verjetnostnih analiz visokovodnih konic, katere glavna prednost je, da lahko z večjo točnostjo napovemo pretoke velikih povratnih dob tudi za lokacije, kjer so nizi merjenih podatkov kratki ali pa meritev sploh ni. Hidrološka regionalizacija verjetnostnih analiz zahteva štiri korake: preg led podatkov, oblikovanje homogenih hidroloških regij, izbiro ustrezne verjetnostne porazdelitve ter oceno parametrov in kvantilov zanjo. Najbolj zahteven del analize je oblikovanje homogenih hidroloških regij, za katerega so v prispevku predstavljene tri različne metode. Hidrološko regionalizacijo visokovodnih konic smo izvedli za izbrane vodomerne postaje v Sloveniji.

Language:Slovenian
Keywords:hidrološka regionalizacija, poplave, pretoki, verjetnostna analiza, metode razvrščanja, Slovenija
Work type:Article (dk_c)
Organization:FGG - Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering
Year:2014
Publisher:Univerza v Ljubljani, Fakulteta za gradbeništvo in geodezijo
Number of pages:139-156
Numbering:27
ISSN:1581-0267
Views:88
Downloads:43
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Secondary language

Language:English
Title:Hydrological regionalisation of flood frequency analyses in Slovenia
Abstract:
Floods in Slovenia are becoming more and more frequent and are cause of the third highest damage due to natural disasters. The basis of effective flood risk management is a reliable frequency analysis that can be used for estimating event return period. An upgrade of the classical frequency analysis is the regional flood frequency analysis. Its main advantage is that it allows higher accuracy of flood forecasts also in areas with shorter or no measurements. Regional flood frequency analysis encompasses four steps: checking the accuracy and discordance of data, identification of homogeneous regions, choice of an appropriate frequency distribution for a region, and quantiles of the selected distribution. The most challenging part of this analysis is the identification of homogeneous hydrological regions. In this paper we present three methods that can be used for this step. The regional flood frequency analysis was performed for selected water gauging stations in Slovenia.

Keywords:hydrological regionalization, flood, discharge, probability analysis, cluster analysis, Slovenia

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