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Izdelava zbirke poplavnih dogodkov z uporabo funkcije kopula
ID Barič, Blaž (Author), ID Šraj, Mojca (Mentor) More about this mentor... This link opens in a new window, ID Maccioni, Giovanni (Co-mentor)

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PID: 20.500.12556/rul/1e9a75cc-4558-49ea-bcff-5c4bb147d008

Abstract
Vsakoletne poplave predstavljajo pomemben delež vseh ekonomskih in zavarovanih škod v svetu in Sloveniji. Za oceno le-teh, se je v zadnjih desetletjih uveljavilo računalniško modeliranje naravnih nesreč. Ti so sestavljeni iz štirih glavnih delov: modula nevarnosti, modula grajenega okolja, modula škodnih krivulj ter finančni dela modelov, ki omogoča izračun višine škod z upoštevanjem pogojev zavarovalnih pogodb. Modul nevarnosti predstavlja bistvo omenjenih modelov, saj simulira možne fizične vplive, ki so značilni za vrsto obravnavane naravne nesreče. V primeru poplav je potrebno definirati zbirko poplavnih dogodkov, ki so opisani z natančno geografsko lokacijo ter lokalno intenziteto pojava. Klasične uniariatne verjetnostne analize zaradi več-dimenzijskega značaja poplavljanja na različnih odsekih vodotokov niso primerne za ocenjevanje skupnega poplavnega tveganja. Kot alternativa klasičnemu raziskovanju hidroloških pojavov so se v hidrologiji začele uporabljati funkcije kopule. V diplomskem delu je bila raziskovana možnost uporabe funkcije kopula za izdelavo zbirke poplavnih dogodkov na območju Republike Slovenije. Izdelane in primerjane so bile različne zbirke poplavnih dogodkov, tri z uporabo Studentove t kopule in ena z uporabo Gumbel kopule. Bivariatna primerjava merjenih in generiranih pretokov parov postaj je pokazala, da Studentova t kopula z 0,483 stopnjami prostosti ter Gumbelova kopula s parametrom

Language:Slovenian
Keywords:Računalniški modeli naravnih nesreč, izračun poplavnih škod, modul nevarnosti, zbirka poplavnih dogodkov, multivariatna verjetnostna analiza, funkcija kopula
Work type:Undergraduate thesis
Typology:2.11 - Undergraduate Thesis
Organization:FGG - Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering
Place of publishing:Ljubljana
Publisher:[B. Barič]
Year:2016
PID:20.500.12556/RUL-83128 This link opens in a new window
UDC:519.2:556.1(043.2)
COBISS.SI-ID:7479649 This link opens in a new window
Publication date in RUL:07.06.2016
Views:2250
Downloads:483
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Secondary language

Language:English
Title:Flood event set development with the use of copula functions
Abstract:
Flooding on a yearly basis represents a significant share of all economic and insured losses in Slovenia and globally. To assist in the estimation of their sizes, catastrophe modelling emerged as an appropriate tool in the last decades. These models consist of four main components: hazard module, exposure module, vulnerability module and financial engine, which performs the calculation of the losses while taking into account the financial conditions of the policies. The hazard module forms the essence of these models as it simulates possible physical phenomena, typical for the peril in question. When analysing flooding, it is necessary to define the flood event set which describes the events with their exact geographical location and local intensity. Due to the multi-site nature of flooding, classical univariate probability analyses are less appropriate when analysing joint flood risk. Copula functions have started being used in hydrology as an alternative to the classical approach. The usability of copula function to develop a flood event set for the Republic of Slovenia has been explored in the graduation thesis. Three Student t copula based and one Gumbel copula based event set have been developed and compared. Bivariate analyses of observed and simulated flows at pairs of stations showed that the Student t copula with 0,483 degrees of freedom and Gumbel copula with the parameter

Keywords:Computer catastrophe models, flood loss calculation, hazard module, flood event set, multivariate probability analysis, copula function

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