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Consequence-, time- and interdependency-based risk assessment in the field of critical infrastructure
ID
Prezelj, Iztok
(
Author
),
ID
Žiberna, Aleš
(
Author
)
URL - Presentation file, Visit
http://www.palgrave-journals.com/rm/journal/v15/n2/full/rm20131a.html
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Abstract
The disruption of any critical infrastructural sector has the potential to create significant direct consequences and cross-sectoral effects in a short period of time. In this article, we suggest a consequence-, time- and interdependency-based risk assessment approach that seeks to identify which direct consequences and intersectoral effects are likely to emerge in what time frame. We argue that critical infrastructures with the capacity to cause the greatest societal consequences and strongest intersectoral negative effects in the shortest time represent the most risky infrastructures. Such a direct risk assessment was further improved by a network-based risk calculation that takes not only first-order effects into account, but also then-order intersectoral cascading effects. Applying this model to 17 infrastructural subsectors in Slovenia shows that the network transfer of effects among critical infrastructures can considerably and unpredictably change their initially calculated risk. The riskiest subsectors at the maximal level of network effects turned out to be those on which other subsectors heavily directly and indirectly depend: electricity, ICT, road transport and financial instruments. Risk management in the critical infrastructure protection field and related defence in depth should focus its limited resources on those infrastructures with the biggest network-based risk
Language:
English
Work type:
Not categorized
Typology:
1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization:
FDV - Faculty of Social Sciences
Year:
2013
Number of pages:
Str. 100-131
Numbering:
Vol. 15, iss. 2
PID:
20.500.12556/RUL-45540
UDC:
005.931.11
ISSN on article:
1460-3799
DOI:
10.1057/rm.2013.1
COBISS.SI-ID:
32107101
Publication date in RUL:
10.07.2015
Views:
5643
Downloads:
193
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Record is a part of a journal
Title:
Risk management
Shortened title:
Risk manag.
Publisher:
Springer Nature
ISSN:
1460-3799
COBISS.SI-ID:
514966297
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