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Uvedba metode pozitivnega matematičnega programiranja v sektorsko modeliranje slovenskega kmetijstva
Kožar, Maja (Author), Erjavec, Emil (Author)

URLURL - Presentation file, Visit http://aas.bf.uni-lj.si/zootehnika/98-2011/PDF/98-2011-1-33-44.pdf New window

Abstract
Prispevek povzema ključne rezultate doktorske raziskave Kožar (2010), katere glavni cilj disertacije je bil uvesti metodo pozitivnega matematičnega programiranja (PMP) v sektorsko modeliranje slovenskega kmetijstva z namenom širitve nabora orodij za kvantitativno analizo učinkov sprememb ekonomsko političnega okolja na slovensko kmetijstvo. Uporabljen je bil modelni sistem CAPRI, komparativni statični model delnega ravnovesja evropskega kmetijstva. Model omogoča testiranje političnih in ekonomskih scenarijev na agregatni ravni EU27, na ravni skupin držav članic, na ravni drav članic, na ravni NUTS 2 regij in po posameznih proizvodih. Drugi cilj doktorske raziskave je bil testirati uvedeni pristop s pomočjo celovite regionalne presoje proizvodnih in ekonomskih učinkov uveljavitve dveh scenarijev dolgoročnih sprememb politike neposrednih plačil prvega stebra SKP na slovensko in evropsko kmetijstvo. Agregirani rezultati na ravni EU27 kažejo, da bi odprava neposrednih plačil prispevala k padcu izhodiščnega dohodka iz kmetijstva za 17%. Učinki so lahko izrazito manj ugodni za posamezne skupine držav članic, države članice in regije znotraj njih, odvisno od deleža neposrednih plačil v dohodku iz kmetijstva, specializiranosti in konkurenčnosti proizvodnje. Najizrazitejši in tudi najbolj negativni proizvodni učinki so napovedani za sektor krav dojilj (na ravni EU27 po obeh scenarijih 6 % zmanjšanje velikosti čred glede na izhodišče). Največji vpliv na agregatne rezultate za EU27 ima padec velikosti čred krav dojilj v Španiji in Franciji, ki povzroči verigo učinkov na druge proizvode. Slovenija je med tistimi območji, ki bodo beležila manj ugodne rezultate. Rezultati so lahko podcenjeni zaradi fiksne obravnave kmetijskih zemljišč in načina modeliranja proizvodno nevezanih plačil.

Language:Slovenian
Keywords:kmetijstvo, skupna kmetijska politika, CAP, sektorsko modeliranje, matematično programiranje, Slovenija
Work type:Not categorized (r6)
Tipology:1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization:BF - Biotechnical Faculty
Year:2011
Number of pages:str. 33-44
Numbering:Letn. 98, št. 1
UDC:631
ISSN on article:1581-9175
COBISS.SI-ID:2899592 Link is opened in a new window
Views:974
Downloads:217
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Record is a part of a journal

Title:Acta agriculturae Slovenica
Shortened title:Acta agric. Slov.
Publisher:Biotehniška fakulteta
ISSN:1581-9175
COBISS.SI-ID:213840640 New window

Secondary language

Language:English
Abstract:
The paper presents the key results of the doctoral dissertation by Kožar (2010), which introduced the method of positive mathematical programming (PMP) in sector modelling of Slovenian agriculture in order to enrich the set of empirical tools for quantitative impact analysis of economic and political changes on Slovenian agriculture. CAPRI modelling system, a comparative static partial equilibrium model of European agriculture was applied. The model enables impact assessment of different policz and economic scenarios at the aggregate level of EU27, at the level of Member States groups, Member States or NUTS 2 regions and by individual products. The second goal of the dissertation was to test the introduced approach by comprehensive regional analysis of production and economic impacts of implementing two scenarios of long-term reforms of CAP pillar I direct pazments policy on Slovenian and European agriculture. Model results show that the abolition of direct pazments would result in drop of the baseline income by 17 % at the aggregate EU27 level. The impacts can be less favourable for individual Member States groups, Member States and regions, depending on the share of premiums in income from agriculture, specialization and competitiveness of production. Themost pronounced and the least favourable production impacts are projected for suckler cows. At the level of EU27 suckler cow herd size will drop by 6 % in case of both scenarios compared to the baseline. The most influential is the drop of the herd size in Spain and France as it influences EU27 average and causes the whole chain of impacts for other products. Slovenia is among those, which will be faced with less favourable impacts. The model results could be underestimated due to the fixed land market and due to the nature of modelling production decoupled payments.

Keywords:agriculture, Common Agricultural olicy, CAP, sector modelling, mathematical programming, Slovenia

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