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Kitajci prihajajo: grožnja ali priložnost? : Izzivi tektonskih sprememb v svetu za razvoj Slovenije
ID Svetličič, Marjan (Author), ID Sicherl, Pavle (Author)

URLURL - Presentation file, Visit http://dk.fdv.uni-lj.si/db/pdfs/tip20065-6_Svetlicic_Sicherl.pdf This link opens in a new window

Abstract
Izjemne pretekle in napovedovane stopnje rasti BRIK držav (Brazilija, Rusija, Indija in Kitajska) drastično spreminjajo ekonomsko podobo sveta. Članek analizira priložnosti in grožnje, ki jih taka predvidevanja predstavljajo za Slovenijo. Vse to v kontekstu ustreznih teorij ter analize prognoz razvoja svetovnega gospodarstva (med drugimi Goldman Sachs-a in Shell-a). Različni "kaj če" scenariji konvergence teh držav s slovenskim bruto domačim dohodkom na prebivalca (po kupni moči) so analizirani. Izračunana S-časovna distanca pokaže, da lahko Kitajska doseže sedanjo raven slovenskega BDP po prebivalcu nekje med letoma 2016 in 2021 (ob 8% stopnji rasti Kitajske leta 2019), čeprav je sedanja raven dohodkov na prebivalca v Sloveniji več kot 3 krat višja. Če pa bi bila razlika med stopnjami rasti obeh držav 4%, kar se zdi realistična predpostavka, potem bi se realna konvergenca lahko dogodila okoli l. 2034 oz. v 31 letih. Izračunani so scenariji pri različnih razlikah stopenj rasti. Čeprav je Slovenija nova članica EU bi morala skušati izkoristiti visoke stopnje rasti BRIK držav s krepitvijo ekonomskega sodelovanja z njimi. Kajti prirast svetovnega povpraševanja od njih in bo postal večji kot od sedaj razvitih držav.

Language:Slovenian
Work type:Not categorized
Typology:1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization:FDV - Faculty of Social Sciences
Year:2006
Number of pages:Str. 690-715
Numbering:Let. 43, št. 5-6
PID:20.500.12556/RUL-22530 This link opens in a new window
UDC:339.9
ISSN on article:0040-3598
COBISS.SI-ID:25647197 This link opens in a new window
Publication date in RUL:11.07.2014
Views:2065
Downloads:221
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Record is a part of a journal

Title:Teorija in praksa : revija za družbena vprašanja
Shortened title:Teor. praksa
Publisher:Fakulteta za družbene vede
ISSN:0040-3598
COBISS.SI-ID:763652 This link opens in a new window

Secondary language

Language:English
Abstract:
The remarkable past and the prospective growth of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are drastically changing the economic picture of the world. Threats and opportunities for Slovenia are examined in this context starting with theoretical framework and evaluation of prospective studies like those of Shell and Goldman Sachs. Various 'what if' scenarios of the process of convergence of these countries especially China toward the present GDP per capita level at purchasing power in Slovenia are elaborated. Calculated S-time-distance is indicating that China may reach present Slovenia per capita BDP sometime between 2016 and 2021 (at 8% growth rate in 2019), even though the present level of Slovenia is more than three times that of China. If the difference between China and Slovenia growth rate would be 4% (calculations are given for different growth rates), which sound as realistic assumption, then convergence may happen in 31 years or in 2034. Though a new EU member Slovenia should try to benefit from the high growth of these countries by enhancing economic cooperation with them where the incremental demand will outpace that of developed countries.


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