INTEGRALNA PROSTORSKA IN ČASOVNA ANALIZA ANTROPOGENIH VIROV ONESNAŽIL S PRIKAZOM DISPERZIJE SNOVI V PROSTORU

Dolšak Lavrič, Petra (author), Kukec, Andreja (mentor), Ogrin, Matej (comentor)

Integralna prostorska in časovna analiza antropogenih virov onesnažil, pripravljena na urni ravni in na mreži 15 × 15 metrov, sklopljena z Lagrangeevim disperzijskim modelom GRAMM/GRAL, predstavlja učinkovito orodje za ocenjevanje vpliva primarnih virov emisij na kakovost zraka. Za študijsko območje je bilo izbrano predalpsko mesto Ljubljana. V emisijski evidenci so bili upoštevani sektorji, ki največ prispevajo k emisijam NOx, PM10, PM2,5, NMVOC in NH3. Skupne ocenjene letne emisije za Ljubljano v letu 2021 so znašale 1.935 ton NOx, 393 ton PM10, 315 ton PM2,5, 1.847 ton NMVOC in 168 ton NH3. Prostorska analiza je pokazala, da so koncentracije NOx predvsem skoncentrirane ob glavnih cestah, nekaj visokih koncentracij pa sovpada z lokacijami industrijskih obratov. Emisije iz prometa so razvidne tudi na zemljevidih emisij PM in NMVOC. Emisije PM10 in PM2,5 so povezane predvsem s stanovanjskimi območji, predvsem zaradi uporabe lesne biomase v malih kuriščih. Emisije NH3 sovpadajo s kmetijsko rabo tal. Emisije NMVOC so skoncentrirane v poslovno-obrtnih conah, kjer je uporaba topil pogostejša. Za oceno zanesljivosti emisijske evidence je bila pripravljena celovita validacija in verifikacija. Pripravljena je bila primerjava evidence z drugimi evropskimi državami glede na površino in gostoto poselitve ter celovita analiza negotovosti. Verifikacija je bila narejena s primerjavo vetrovnih polj modela GRAMM na petih lokacijah meritev z uporabo statistične analize (R, MB, NMB in RMSE). Statistično so bili analizirani tudi rezultati meritev in izmerjene vrednosti PM in NOx na treh merjenih lokacijah (Bežigrad, Celovška in Vič). Statistična primerjava med modeliranimi in opazovanimi koncentracijami kaže zmerno ujemanje za PM10 in boljše ujemanje za NOx. Na lokaciji Vič je bila v letu 2023 narejena tudi analiza virov emisij s pomočjo metode PMF, ki izkazuje podobno analizo virov v primerjavi z emisijsko evidenco. Na splošno rezultati te študije izboljšujejo razumevanje dinamike disperzije snovi ter zagotavljajo znanstveno podlago za odločitve, namenjene izboljšanju kakovosti zraka in varovanju zdravja prebivalcev.

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: emisijska evidenca, prostorsko-časovna porazdelitev, kompleksen teren, GRMM/GRAL disperzija snovi, receptorski model PMF, statistična analiza, analiza negotovosti
• Work type: Doctoral dissertation
• Organization: MF - Faculty of Medicine
• Year: 2026
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-189501
• Publication date in RUL: 08.10.2026

Secondary language

• Language: English
• Title: COMPREHENSIVE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF ANTHROPOGENIC POLLUTANTS SOURCES WITH THEIR SPATIAL DISPERSION

Abstract

An integrated spatial and temporal analysis of anthropogenic emission sources, prepared at an hourly level and on a 15 × 15 meter grid, coupled with the Lagrangian dispersion model GRAMM/GRAL, an effective tool for assessing the impact of primary emission sources on air quality. The subalpine city of Ljubljana was selected as the study area. The emission inventory included sectors that contribute the most to emissions of NOx, PM10, PM2.5, NMVOC, and NH3. The total estimated annual emissions for Ljubljana in 2021 amounted to 1,935 tons of NOx, 393 tons of PM10, 315 tons of PM2.5, 1,847 tons of NMVOC, and 168 tons of NH3. Spatial analysis showed that NOx concentrations are mainly concentrated along major roads, with some high concentrations coinciding with locations of industrial facilities. Emissions from traffic are also evident in the maps of PM and NMVOC emissions. PM10 and PM2.5 emissions are primarily associated with residential areas, mainly due to the use of wood in small-scale combustion. NH3 emissions coincide with agricultural land use. NMVOC emissions are concentrated in commercial zones, where solvent use is more frequent. To assess the reliability of the emission inventory, a comprehensive validation and verification were carried out. A comparison of the inventory with those of other European countries was conducted, taking into account area and population density, along with a detailed uncertainty analysis. Verification was performed by comparing GRAMM model wind fields at five measurement locations using statistical analysis (R, MB, NMB, and RMSE). Measurement results and observed values of PM and NOx were also statistically analyzed at three monitoring sites (Bežigrad, Celovška, and Vič). The statistical comparison between modeled and observed concentrations indicates moderate agreement for PM10 and stronger agreement for NOx. At the Vič location, a source apportionment analysis using the PMF method was also conducted in 2023, showing similar source contributions compared to the emission inventory. Overall, the results of this study improve the understanding of pollutant dispersion dynamics and provide a scientific basis for decision-making aimed at improving air quality and protecting public health.

• Keywords: Emission inventory, Spatio-temporal distribution, Complex terrain, GRAMM/GRAL dispersion modelling, PMF receptor model, statistical analyses, uncertainty analyses