Climate change affects the quantitative and qualitative status of water resources and, consequently, the reliability of drinking water supply. The aim of this master’s thesis is to assess the vulnerability of the Brestovica water source to climate change and to identify the key factors affecting its long-term water availability. The Brestovica water source is part of the transboundary karst aquifer system of the Classical Karst, which is characterised by the high permeability of carbonate rocks, rapid recharge, and rapid groundwater flow through karst structures.
The thesis analyses the current climate conditions in the Brestovica area based on data from the Tomaj–Godnje meteorological station, including trends in air temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and water balance. Future changes are assessed using climate projections for the period 2041–2070 under the RCP4.5 scenario and for the period 2071–2100 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The water balance and groundwater recharge of the aquifer are assessed using the GROWA-SI hydrological model. The vulnerability assessment of the Brestovica aquifer considers climate hazard indicators, exposure and sensitivity indicators, the existing quantitative and chemical status of the water source, its use and protection, and its adaptive capacity.
The results show that climate change will have a significant impact primarily on the seasonal availability of groundwater at the Brestovica drinking water source. The projections indicate an increase in air temperature and evapotranspiration, as well as a decrease in groundwater availability for aquifer recharge during the summer period, leading to increased sensitivity of the water source. Analysis of groundwater response to precipitation showed a rapid response of the karst aquifer, characterised by rapid rises and declines in groundwater levels and relatively low water retention capacity. In the reference period, both vulnerability and risk were assessed as moderate, while they were assessed as high under all future scenarios considered. The results indicate that implementation of adaptation measures will be important for reducing future vulnerability, particularly through more effective water resource management, reduction of water losses in the distribution network, provision of alternative water sources, and adjustment of water consumption to available quantities.
|
