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Napovedovanje odziva verige malih hidroelektrarn z uporabo simulacijskega modela in strojnega učenja
ID Peternelj, Rok (Author), ID Podržaj, Primož (Mentor) More about this mentor... This link opens in a new window

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Abstract
V magistrski nalogi smo raziskali možnost uporabe simulacijskega modela, razvitega v okolju Simulink, za generiranje sintetičnih podatkov za učenje modelov strojnega učenja XGBoost in naključni gozd. Modela sta bila uporabljena za napovedovanje minimalnega vodostaja in časa prihoda dvojne vode v verigi dveh malih hidroelektrarn. Za učenje in preverjanje modelov so bili uporabljeni sintetični podatki, pridobljeni s simulacijskim modelom, ter meritve dejanskega sistema. Rezultati kažejo, da so sintetični podatki primerni za napovedovanje minimalnega vodostaja in omogočajo zadovoljivo napoved njegovega odziva. Pri napovedi časa prihoda dvojne vode pa rezultati niso bili dovolj zanesljivi, saj simulacijski model tega pojava še ne opisuje dovolj natančno. Ugotovitve kažejo potencial uporabe simulacijskih podatkov, hkrati pa izpostavljajo potrebo po nadaljnji izboljšavi simulacijskega modela.

Language:Slovenian
Keywords:male hidroelektrarne, simulacijski modeli, strojno učenje, XGBoost, Random Forest
Work type:Master's thesis/paper
Typology:2.09 - Master's Thesis
Organization:FS - Faculty of Mechanical Engineering
Place of publishing:Ljubljana
Publisher:[R. Peternelj]
Year:2026
Number of pages:XX, 57 str.
PID:20.500.12556/RUL-188220 This link opens in a new window
UDC:621.311.21:004.942:004.85(043.2)
COBISS.SI-ID:291909635 This link opens in a new window
Publication date in RUL:19.09.2026
Views:59
Downloads:14
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Secondary language

Language:English
Title:Prediction of the Response of a Small Hydropower Plant Cascade Using a Simulation Model and Machine Learning
Abstract:
In this master's thesis, we investigated the possibility of using a simulation model developed in the Simulink environment to generate synthetic data for training machine learning models, namely XGBoost and Random Forest. The models were used to predict the minimum water level and the arrival time of the double flow in a chain of two small hydropower plants. Synthetic data obtained from the simulation model, as well as measurements from the actual system, were used for training and evaluating the models. The results show that synthetic data are suitable for predicting the minimum water level and enable a satisfactory prediction of its response. However, the results for predicting the arrival time of the double flow were not sufficiently reliable, as the simulation model does not yet describe this phenomenon accurately enough. The findings demonstrate the potential of using simulation data while also highlighting the need for further improvement of the simulation model.

Keywords:small hydropower plants, simulation models, machine learning, XGBoost, Random Forest

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