Modeliranje odziva sistema zaščite in reševanja na potresni scenarij : diplomska naloga

Rupar, Tjaša (author), Dolšek, Matjaž (mentor), Fazarinc, Neja (comentor)

Potres lahko povzroči obsežne posledice za prebivalstvo, stavbe in infrastrukturo, zato je za obvladovanje njegovih posledic takoj po potresu ključno učinkovito delovanje sistema zaščite in reševanja. V diplomski nalogi obravnavamo modeliranje odziva lokalnega sistema zaščite in reševanja na potres z momentno magnitudo 5,6 na območju občine Škofja Loka, ki je bil opredeljen glede na ciljno povratno dobo 2500 let. Za izbrani potresni scenarij smo simulirali prostorsko polje potresnega gibanja tal ob upoštevanju vpliva lokalnih tal. Potresno kapaciteto stavb smo ocenili s parametričnimi potisnimi krivuljami, potresne zahteve pa z metodo N2. Glede na ocenjena stanja poškodovanosti stavb smo modelirali posledice za prebivalstvo, vključno s smrtnimi žrtvami, poškodovanimi osebami in potrebami po začasni nastanitvi. Pri modeliranju odziva smo upoštevali tudi operativnost enot po potresu ter prevoznost cestnega omrežja. Rezultati kažejo, da bi 551 stavb doseglo stanje popolne poškodovanosti, kar znaša približno 9 % vseh stavb. Potres bi povzročil približno 30 smrtnih žrtev in 789 poškodovanih oseb, medtem ko bi 9244 oseb potrebovalo začasno nastanitev. Zmogljivost lokalnega sistema ne bi zadostovala za obvladovanje vseh ocenjenih posledic, predvsem zaradi nezadostnih kapacitet začasnih nastanitev in zdravstvene oskrbe. Poudariti je treba, da predstavljeni rezultati ne predstavljajo napovedi posledic konkretnega potresnega dogodka, saj analiza temelji na enem izbranem potresnem scenariju in srednjih ocenah posameznih komponent modela, medtem ko upoštevanje aleatornih in epistemičnih negotovosti presega okvire naloge. Kljub tem omejitvam pristop omogoča povezovanje posledic, zahtev in kapacitet s simulacijo odziva ter predstavlja podlago za izboljšanje pripravljenosti in opredelitev potreb po podpori lokalnemu sistemu z državne ravni.

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: diplomske naloge, gradbeništvo, potresni scenarij, potresne zahteve, pripravljenost na izredne razmere, sistem zaščite in reševanja, modeliranje odziva na izredne razmere, občina Škofja Loka
• Work type: Bachelor thesis/paper
• Typology: 2.11 - Undergraduate Thesis
• Organization: FGG - Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering
• Place of publishing: Ljubljana
• Publisher: [T. Rupar]
• Year: 2026
• Number of pages: 1 spletni vir (1 datoteka PDF (IX, 36 str.))
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-188009
• UDC: 550.349:699.8(043.2)
• COBISS.SI-ID: 291570179
• Publication date in RUL: 17.09.2026

Secondary language

• Language: English
• Title: Modeling the response of the emergency management system to an earthquake scenario

Abstract

A strong earthquake can have significant consequences for the population, buildings, and infrastructure. Therefore, an effective civil protection and disaster response system is essential for managing these consequences immediately after an earthquake. This thesis investigates the response of the local civil protection and disaster response system to an earthquake with a moment magnitude of 5.6 in the Municipality of Škofja Loka. The scenario was defined with reference to a target return period of 2,500 years. For the selected earthquake scenario, the ground motion field was simulated, taking local site effects into account. The seismic capacity of buildings was estimated using parametric pushover curves, while seismic demands were determined using the N2 method. Consequences for the population, including fatalities, injuries, and temporary accommodation needs, were modeled based on the estimated building damage states. The post-earthquake operability of emergency response units and the functionality of the road network were also considered. The results indicate that 551 buildings would reach the complete damage, corresponding to approximately 9% of the building stock. Approximately 30 fatalities and 789 injured persons were estimated, and 9,244 people would require temporary accommodation. The capacities of the local system would not be sufficient to manage all the estimated consequences, mainly due to insufficient temporary accommodation and healthcare capacities. It should be emphasized that the results do not represent a prediction of the consequences of a specific earthquake event. The analysis is based on one selected earthquake scenario and mean estimates of the individual model components, while consideration of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties is beyond the scope of this thesis. Despite these limitations, the proposed approach enables the integration of earthquake consequences, demands, and available capacities within an emergency response simulation and provides a basis for improving preparedness and identifying the need for support to the local system from the national level.

• Keywords: graduation thesis, civil engineering, earthquake scenario, seismic demands, emergency preparedness, civil protection and disaster response system, emergency response modeling, municipality of Škofja Loka