AI-driven risk management for sustainable water distribution : a comparative study of resampling strategies and cost-sensitive predictive modeling for leakage failure

Fernández, David Abert (author), Monclús, Hèctor (author), Fetai, Bujar (author), Kozelj, Daniel (author)

Aging water infrastructure and the resulting increase in pipe leaks pose significant operational and financial challenges for modern utilities, requiring more accurate tools for failure identification. This study presents a comprehensive benchmarking framework designed to predict pipe failure probability by evaluating a wide array of state-of-the-art classification models, including traditional baselines, tree-based ensembles, and emerging tabular deep learning architectures. The methodology integrates high-resolution datasets with a dedicated evaluation of spatially derived infrastructure indicators to capture the complex environmental and physical drivers of failure. To address inherent class imbalance, the study systematically benchmarks resampling strategies, such as SMOTE, ADASYN, and RUS, to determine whether these techniques truly improve decision-making performance. This assessment is grounded in the application of proper scoring rules, specifically Logarithmic Loss and Brier Score, alongside the introduction of the Area Under the Cost Curve to evaluate the economic implications of predictive performance across varying cost scenarios.

• Language: English
• Keywords: water distribution networks, leakage failure, machine learning, resampling
• Work type: Article
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: FGG - Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering
• Publication status: Published
• Publication version: Version of Record
• Year: 2026
• Number of pages: 9 str.
• Numbering: Vol. 306, art. 126622
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-185607
• UDC: 626/627:004.8
• ISSN on article: 1879-2448
• DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2026.126622
• COBISS.SI-ID: 287624963
• Publication date in RUL: 12.08.2026

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: Water Research
• Publisher: Elsevier
• ISSN: 1879-2448
• COBISS.SI-ID: 23055365

Licences

• License: CC BY-NC 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International
• Link: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
• Description: A creative commons license that bans commercial use, but the users don’t have to license their derivative works on the same terms.

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: vodovodna omrežja, okvare zaradi puščanja, strojno učenje, prevzorčenje

Projects

• Funder: ARIS - Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency
• Project number: P2-0227
• Name: Geoinformacijska infrastruktura in trajnostni prostorski razvoj Slovenije