Naturalized range expansion : assessing the invasion risk of aoudad into Balkan chamois habitat

Šprem, Nikica (author), Papakostas, Konstantinos (author), Rodriguez Recio, Mariano (author), Gančević, Pavao (author), Corlatti, Luca (author), Jerina, Klemen (author)

Introduced ungulates can threaten native species through habitat modification, competition, pathogen transmission, or hybridization. Aoudad Ammotragus lervia, a species native to North Africa, have been introduced to several European countries, where the species could expand into the range of the native species, especially mountain ungulates. To investigate the potential overlap with a native species, Balkan chamois Rupicapra rupicapra balcanica, a subspecies of conservation concern, served us as a model species. We applied a multiscale resource selection framework using GPS data from aoudad and Balkan chamois, in Southern Dinaric Alps. Aoudad consistently selected steep slopes and avoided northern exposures across scales. They selected scrub habitats positively at broad scales, avoided areas close to roads, and showed fine-scale avoidance of wolf-suitable areas. Chamois consistently avoided eastern exposures and selected rugged terrain, with positive associations to scrub at the population-range scale. They also displayed scale-dependent responses and avoided areas with higher suitability for wolves and preferred areas near roads. Our integrated habitat suitability maps predict that 77.8% of chamois’ suitable habitat matches with areas suitable for aoudad, highlighting the potential for spatial overlap if aoudad expands. So far, the aoudad has not spread in Dinarides; however, this cannot be excluded in the future, due to chance events and especially climate change, which likely improves conditions for the species. Anticipating range expansion of the aoudad is the first critical step for informing conservation and management strategies for the Balkan chamois, which nonetheless will require a thorough analysis of the actual competition and its possible consequences.

• Language: English
• Keywords: invasion risk, naturalized species, mountain ungulates, ammotragus lervia, Caprinae, Rupicapra rupicapra balcanica
• Work type: Article
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: BF - Biotechnical Faculty
• Publication status: Published
• Publication version: Version of Record
• Year: 2026
• Number of pages: 10 str.
• Numbering: Vol. 94, art. 127389
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-185198
• UDC: 591.9:599.735.52(234.422.1)
• ISSN on article: 1618-1093
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2026.127389
• COBISS.SI-ID: 286171907
• Publication date in RUL: 28.07.2026

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: Journal for nature conservation
• Shortened title: J. nat. conserv.
• Publisher: Elsevier
• ISSN: 1618-1093
• COBISS.SI-ID: 286164739

Licences

• License: CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
• Link: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Description: This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: invazivnost, naturalizirane vrste, gorski parkljarji, grivasta ovca, koze, balkanski gams