Analiza sodniške skladnosti in ključnih sodniških odločitev na svetovnem prvenstvu v olimpijskem boksu : magistrsko delo

Munda, Gašper (author), Šimenko, Jožef (mentor), Besal, Sara (comentor)

Namen magistrskega dela je bil analizirati sodniško skladnost in vpliv ključnih sodniških dogodkov na izid borb v olimpijskem boksu. Osredotočili smo se na medsodniško usklajenost pri ocenjevanju posameznih rund, na napovedno moč izida prve runde za končni izid borbe ter na povezanost sodniških opozoril in sodniških štetij z izidi rund in borb. Podatki so bili zbrani z uradne spletne strani Svetovnega prvenstva World Boxing 2025 v Liverpoolu. V analizo smo vključili 94 moških borb iz treh težinskih kategorij – do 60 kg, do 75 kg in nad 90 kg. Za vsako borbo smo zabeležili točkovanje posameznih rund s strani vseh petih sodnikov ter prisotnost sodniških opozoril (warnings) in sodniških štetij (knockdowns). Statistična analiza je bila izvedena s programom IBM SPSS Statistics 31. Medsodniška skladnost je bila ocenjena z intraklasnim korelacijskim koeficientom (ICC), vpliv izida prve runde na končni izid borbe z binarno logistično regresijo, povezanost sodniških dogodkov z izidi pa s χ² testom oziroma Fisherjevim eksaktnim testom. Rezultati so pokazali visoko do odlično medsodniško skladnost v vseh treh rundah, pri čemer je bila skladnost najvišja v prvi rundi (ICC = 0,982), nekoliko nižja v drugi (ICC = 0,896) in ponovno visoka v tretji (ICC = 0,913). Izkazalo se je, da izid prve runde pogosto napoveduje končni izid borbe v vseh analiziranih kategorijah. Boksarji, ki so zmagali prvo rundo, so imeli 45,56-krat večje obete za končno zmago. Prisotnost sodniškega opozorila je bila statistično značilno povezana z izidom runde na celotnem vzorcu (p = 0,001) in v težki kategoriji (p = 0,009), medtem ko je sodniško štetje (knockdown) odločilno vplivalo na posamezno rundo (p < 0,001), ne pa nujno na celoten izid borbe. Ugotovitve kažejo, da sodniški sistem 10-point must v olimpijskem boksu omogoča visoko stopnjo medsodniške konsistentnosti. Prva runda ima ključen taktični in napovedni pomen, taktična disciplina pa neposredno vpliva na sodniško ocenjevanje. Rezultati imajo praktične implikacije za trenerje, tekmovalce in organizatorje sodniških sistemov v olimpijskem boksu.

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: olimpijski boks, sodniška skladnost, intraklasni korelacijski koeficient, sodniške odločitve, World Boxing
• Work type: Master's thesis/paper
• Typology: 2.09 - Master's Thesis
• Organization: FŠ - Faculty of Sport
• Year: 2026
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-183921
• COBISS.SI-ID: 283071235
• Publication date in RUL: 21.06.2026

Secondary language

• Language: English
• Title: Analysis of judging consistency and key judging decisions at the world championship in olympic boxing

Abstract

The purpose of this master's thesis was to analyze judging consistency and the impact of key judging events on bout outcomes in Olympic boxing. We focused on inter-judge agreement in scoring individual rounds, the predictive value of the first-round outcome on the final bout result, and the association between judges' warnings and knockdowns with round and bout outcomes. Data were collected from the official website of the World Boxing 2025 World Championship in Liverpool. The analysis included 94 male bouts across three weight categories – up to 60 kg, up to 75 kg, and above 90 kg. For each bout, we recorded the round-by-round scoring of all five judges, as well as the occurrence of warnings and knockdowns. Statistical analysis was performed using IBM SPSS Statistics 31. Inter-judge consistency was assessed using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), the influence of the first-round outcome on the final bout result was examined using binary logistic regression, and the association between judging events and outcomes was tested using the χ² test or Fisher's exact test. Results showed high to excellent inter-judge consistency across all three rounds, with the highest agreement observed in the first round (ICC = 0.982), slightly lower in the second round (ICC = 0.896), and high again in the third round (ICC = 0.913). The first-round outcome proved to be an exceptionally strong predictor of the final bout result across all analyzed categories. Boxers who won the first round had 45.56 times greater odds of winning the bout overall. The presence of a judge's warning was statistically significantly associated with the round outcome in the overall sample (p = 0.001) and in the heavyweight category (p = 0.009), while a knockdown had a decisive impact on the individual round (p < 0.001), but not necessarily on the overall bout result. The findings indicate that the 10-point must scoring system in Olympic boxing enables a high level of inter-judge consistency. The first round holds key tactical and predictive significance, and tactical discipline directly influences judging outcomes. The results have practical implications for coaches, athletes, and administrators of judging systems in Olympic boxing.

• Keywords: olympic boxing, judging consistency, intraclass correlation coefficient, judging decisions, World Boxing