Prostorsko-časovno modeliranje temperatur : primer vinorodnega okoliša Goriška brda (Slovenija)

Sirnik, Igor (author)

Climate change presents an increasing threat to agricultural, with significant impacts in viticulture. Rising temperatures affect grape yield, grape composition, and wine quality. This study aims to assess future temperature increase at Goriška Brda (Slovenia) viticultural region. Temperature data sets were retrieved from three weather stations located within and in vicinity of Goriška Brda. Future temperature simulation for the period 2041–2060 were evaluated under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios using averages of Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5). The future simulated temperatures showed an average temperature increase of approximately 2.0 °C at all three weather stations for 2041–2060 compared to the reference period (1950–2000). The assessed temperature increase highlights the need for adaptation strategies in Goriška Brda. The findings of this study provide valuable insights to support decision-making among winemakers by identifying appropriate adaptation strategies to enhance the resilience of viticulture under future climate change conditions.

• Language: English
• Keywords: climate change, adaptation strategies, Worldclime, viticulture, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5
• Work type: Article
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: FGG - Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering
• Publication status: Published
• Publication version: Version of Record
• Year: 2026
• Number of pages: Str. 11-30
• Numbering: Letn. 70, št. 1
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-181395
• UDC: 004.942:536.5(497.473)
• ISSN on article: 0351-0271
• DOI: 10.15292/geodetski-vestnik.2026.01.11-30
• COBISS.SI-ID: 274201603
• Publication date in RUL: 03.04.2026

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: Geodetski vestnik : glasilo Zveze geodetov Slovenije
• Shortened title: Geod. vestn.
• Publisher: Zveza geodetov Slovenije
• ISSN: 0351-0271
• COBISS.SI-ID: 5091842

Licences

• License: CC BY-NC 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International
• Link: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
• Description: A creative commons license that bans commercial use, but the users don’t have to license their derivative works on the same terms.

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian
• Title: Spatial-temporal temperature modelling : example of Goriška Brda viticultural region (Slovenia)

Abstract

Podnebne spremembe vse bolj ogrožajo kmetijstvo in imajo resne posledice (tudi) za vinogradništvo. Zlasti povišanje temperature vpliva na količino pridelka in sestavo grozdja ter kakovost vin. Namen te študije je oceniti prihodnje povišanje temperature v vinorodni regiji Goriška brda (Slovenija). Podatki o izmerjenih temperaturah so bili pridobljeni s treh vremenskih postaj, ki so nameščene na območju oziroma v bližini Goriških brd. Simulacija prihodnje temperature za obdobje 2041–2060 je bila ocenjena v okviru scenarijev Reprezentativna pot koncentracije (RCP) 4.5 in 8.5 z uporabo povprečja globalnih podnebnih modelov, Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5). Simulirane temperature so pokazale povprečno zvišanje temperature za približno 2,0 °C na vseh treh vremenskih postajah za obdobje 2041–2060 v primerjavi z referenčnim obdobjem 1950–2000. Ocenjeno zvišanje temperature poudarja potrebo po prilagoditvenih strategijah v Goriških brdih. Ugotovitve študije zagotavljajo podporo vinogradnikom pri izbiranju prilagoditvenih strategij za povečanje odpornosti vinogradništva v kontekstu podnebnih sprememb.

• Keywords: podnebne spremembe, prilagoditvene strategije, WorldClim, vinogradništvo, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5

Projects

• Funder: ARIS - Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency
• Project number: P2-0406
• Name: Opazovanje Zemlje in geoinformatika