Analysing power system cascading failures and service disruptions in a data-scarce environment : a case study of Vietnam

Ye, Mengqi (author), Vanniya Perumal, Surender Raj (author), Pantoš, Miloš (author), Ribnikar Cimerman, Sebastijan (author), Ward, Philip J (author), Koks, Elco E. (author)

Cascading failures in power grids can escalate localised disruptions into extensive service outages. This study presents a transparent, reproducible framework for constructing large-scale power grid models from publicly available data. To assess service impacts on industrial users, we combine industrial points of interest with OpenStreetMap industrial zones and link them to substations using a capacity- and distance-informed allocation method. We examine two disruption scenarios: 1) random failures using percolation analysis and 2) hazard-driven failures using Monte Carlo sampling of wind-induced fragility curves derived from the 2024 Typhoon Yagi wind field. Results show that the Vietnam high-voltage grid is structurally vulnerable, with the giant component fragmenting rapidly under low levels of random bus removal, indicating limited redundancy. Although more than 95 % of transmission lines show no overload under random disruptions, critical corridors around major urban centres exhibit high overload probabilities exceeding 0.5. Under Typhoon Yagi, both direct and indirect failures contribute substantially to disruptions, with indirect impacts extending beyond wind exposed areas. Despite an average served load ratio of 0.91, 26 % of loads lose service in at least one simulation, revealing pronounced spatial disparities in resilience. These findings provide actionable insights for risk-informed resilience planning and targeted reinforcement investment.

• Language: English
• Keywords: cascading failures, service disruptions, network analysis, power flow model, tropical cyclones
• Work type: Article
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: FE - Faculty of Electrical Engineering
• Publication status: Published
• Publication version: Version of Record
• Year: 2026
• Number of pages: 15 str.
• Numbering: Vol. 272, part 2, art. 112575
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-181271
• UDC: 621.31
• ISSN on article: 0951-8320
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2026.112575
• COBISS.SI-ID: 273502211
• Publication date in RUL: 30.03.2026

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: Reliability engineering & systems safety
• Shortened title: Reliab. eng. syst. saf.
• Publisher: Elsevier Applied Science
• ISSN: 0951-8320
• COBISS.SI-ID: 27385344

Licences

• License: CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
• Link: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Description: This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: kaskadni izpadi, motnje storitev, analiza omrežja, model pretoka moči, tropski cikloni