Continental contrasts in climate extremes that control tree fecundity

Clark, James Samuel (author), Nagel, Thomas Andrew (author)

In 2023, more than half of olive harvests (Olea europaea) across Spain, Greece, and Türkiye were lost to drought. The same year late freeze destroyed 90% of the peach crop (Prunus persica) on the Georgia Piedmont and the apple crop (Malus domestica) in central New York, Vermont, and southern Quebec. Climate extremes now rank with the costliest threats to agriculture, but their role in forest recovery from diebacks that are happening globally is unknown for lack of tree fecundity estimates in forests. Tolerance of climate extremes could depend on past exposure but constrained by phylogenetic conservatism. We report a continental scale analysis of climate extremes and forest fecundity across North America and Europe showing that responses to late freeze and drought are happening now. Species differences are not explained by the traits typically included in ecological studies and they are weakly associated with phylogeny. Late freeze, that is, freezing temperatures that follow the onset of flower development in spring, is shown to be “normal” in North America, but not Europe, potentially explaining failed seed production due to delayed onset and the resultant shorter growing period by North American transplants dating back at least to the 18th century. Drought has thus far had the greatest impacts in dry forested regions, but here too, species differences are not explained by traditional trait values. If responses have been buffered from drought and late freeze by past exposure, acclimation and local adaptation prove inadequate as extremes intensify.

• Language: English
• Keywords: climate extremes, drought, forest recovery, late freeze
• Work type: Article
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: BF - Biotechnical Faculty
• Publication status: Published
• Publication version: Author Accepted Manuscript
• Year: 2026
• Number of pages: 17 str.
• Numbering: Vol. 32, iss. 2, art. e70738
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-179545
• UDC: 630*42:581.16
• ISSN on article: 1365-2486
• DOI: 10.1111/gcb.70738
• COBISS.SI-ID: 268410371
• Publication date in RUL: 16.02.2026

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: Global change biology
• Shortened title: Glob. chang. biol.
• Publisher: Blackwell Science
• ISSN: 1365-2486
• COBISS.SI-ID: 517722393

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: podnebni ekstremi, suše, obnova gozda, pozne pozebe