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Examining the dynamic nature of pupils’ educational aspirations : a longitudinal mixed-model study
ID Jokić, Boris (Author), ID Ristić, Zrinka Dedić (Author)

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Abstract
This paper describes the results from a fully integrated longitudinal mixed model study examining the nature of, changes in, and interaction between the upper secondary and higher education aspirations of Croatian pupils. The research was carried out over two academic years in which pupils approached the transition from single-structure elementary (primary and lower secondary) education to differentiated upper secondary education. The qualitative part of the study centred on an indepth exploration of the educational aspirations of 30 pupils from five schools using a series of 118 semi-structured interviews. The quantitative part consisted of repeated questionnaire administration (N = 823) while pupils progressed to the final year of elementary education. Generalised Estimating Equations for Repeated Measures Outcome and Latent Curve Growth Modelling procedures indicate significant changes in upper secondary aspirations and stable higher education aspirations over time. Qualitative analyses indicate five patterns of upper secondary education aspirations and three patterns of higher education aspirations. Analysis of the interaction between aspirations at different educational levels suggests that upper secondary aspiration mediates a pupil’s aspiration for higher education. These results suggest that special effort is necessary in order to inform pupils about their educational options at both the upper secondary and higher education levels.

Language:English
Keywords:upper secondary educational aspirations, higher education aspirations, mixed model design, longitudinal research
Work type:Article
Typology:1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization:PEF - Faculty of Education
Publication status:Published
Publication version:Version of Record
Year:2025
Number of pages:Str. 13–39
Numbering:Vol. 15, no. 3 (varia issue)
PID:20.500.12556/RUL-179461 This link opens in a new window
UDC:373.5
ISSN on article:2232-2647
DOI:10.26529/cepsj.1613 This link opens in a new window
COBISS.SI-ID:181637635 This link opens in a new window
Copyright:
Podatek o licenci CC-BY 4.0 je naveden na spletni strani revije (https://ojs.cepsj.si/index.php/cepsj/about). (Datum opombe 14. 2. 2026)
Publication date in RUL:14.02.2026
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Record is a part of a journal

Title:CEPS Journal: Center for Educational Policy Studies Journal = revija Centra za študij edukacijskih strategij
Publisher:Pedagoška fakulteta, Univerza v Ljubljani
ISSN:2232-2647
COBISS.SI-ID:254029824 This link opens in a new window

Licences

License:CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
Link:http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Description:This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.

Secondary language

Language:Slovenian
Title:Preučevanje dinamične narave izobraževalnih aspiracij učencev : longitudinalna študija z mešanim modelom
Abstract:
Ta članek opisuje rezultate popolnoma integrirane longitudinalne študije z mešanim modelom, ki je preučevala naravo, spremembe ter interakcijo med srednješolskimi in visokošolskimi aspiracijami hrvaških učencev. Raziskava je bila izvedena v dveh šolskih letih, v katerih so učenci prehajali iz enostrukturnega osnovnošolskega izobraževanja (razredna in predmetna stopnja) v diferencirano srednješolsko izobraževanje. Kvalitativni del raziskave se je osredinil na poglobljeno raziskovanje izobraževalnih aspiracij 30 učencev iz petih šol z uporabo niza 118 polstrukturiranih intervjujev. Kvantitativni del je obsegal ponavljajoče se izpolnjevanje vprašalnikov (N = 823), medtem ko so učenci napredovali v zadnje leto osnovnošolskega izobraževanja. Postopki posplošenih ocenjevalnih enačb za rezultate ponovljenih meritev in modeliranja latentne krivulje rasti kažejo na pomembne spremembe aspiracij v srednješolskem izobraževanju in stabilne aspiracije v visokošolskem izobraževanju skozi čas. Kvalitativne analize kažejo na pet vzorcev aspiracij za srednješolsko izobraževanje in tri vzorce aspiracij za visokošolsko izobraževanje. Analiza interakcije med aspiracijami na različnih izobraževalnih ravneh kaže, da imajo aspiracije na srednješolski ravni vpliv na učenčeve aspiracije za visokošolsko izobraževanje. Ti rezultati kažejo, da si je treba posebej prizadevati za obveščanje dijakov o njihovih izobraževalnih možnostih na ravni srednješolskega in visokošolskega izobraževanja.

Keywords:srednješolske izobraževalne aspiracije, visokošolske izobraževalne aspiracije, zasnova mešanega modela, longitudinalna raziskava, srednješolsko izobraževanje

Projects

Funder:Croatian Science Foundation
Project number:UIP-2015-09-6757
Name:Educational aspirations of pupils at transitional periods of Croatian elementary education: nature, determinants and change
Acronym:COBRAS

Funder:Institute for Social Research in Zagreb

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